We went 1-1 again yesterday, cashing home run and total base props for Tyler O’Neill but losing a strikeout prop for Logan Gilbert. It’s a small evening slate tonight, but if I add any extra picks after this article, you can find them on Discord or our expert picks page. Let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Wednesday, July 24.
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Wednesday, July 24
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Teoscar Hernandez
After missing almost all of last season, LHP Robbie Ray will make his return to the show this evening for the San Francisco Giants. He’ll have to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers at their home park, however, and I am skeptical of how good Ray will look in his return to the bump. In his last full season, he coughed up 31.6 xHR on 1.5 xHR/9. A large part of the issue then was a dip in fastball velocity, which, two years later, has likely only gotten worse.
All of that said, splits are the big reason why we’re locking in on Teoscar Hernandez in this spot. As a RHB, Hernandez is slashing .293/.333/.616 versus LHPs this season, including nine home runs in 99 at-bats. Meanwhile, Ray, in his last full season, surrendered a .236/.308/.431 slash line to RHBs, including 28 home runs.
Hernandez comes into this matchup hot, too. Obviously, he won the Home Run Derby last week, but over the last seven days, he is also slashing an absurd .421/.476/.789 with two home runs. Hernandez has mashed 19.7 expected home runs on the year, including 23 batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences at Dodger Stadium.
Let’s back Hernandez to both tally multiple bases (+125 at Unibet) and go yard (+400 at BetMGM). He has moved up to fourth in the L.A. batting order regardless of pitcher handedness, increasing the number of potential at-bats he should see per game. Even if he can’t go yard against Ray, San Francisco’s bullpen has allowed the sixth-most home runs this season (48).
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Teoscar Hernandez +400 at BetMGM
For the best price currently available, check out our Teoscar Hernandez home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Mitchell Parker
The Washington Nationals are hosting the San Diego Padres this week, and it’s LHP Mitchell Parker on the bump for them today. The Padres are notoriously difficult to punch out, as they lead the MLB in strikeouts taken per game (6.7). They are a close second in strikeout rate versus LHPs on the year (17.5%) but are the league leaders since acquiring base-hit merchant Luis Arraez on May 4 (16.4%).
Parker has been a below-average pitcher in terms of strikeouts this season. He sports a 20.1% strikeout rate (32nd). He failed to clear the 3.5-strikeout mark in his last outing, and while he did so in five straight starts from mid-June to early July, I’m skeptical of his ability to replicate such a showing versus this Padres team.
Those are my projection-based notes, but there is a market-based edge to be had here as well. Parker is sitting at -110 at DraftKings to stay under 3.5 strikeouts, but most books have this one at odds of between -115and -139, with Pinnacle, a sharp book, listing him at -115. Those numbers point to positive expected value (+EV) at DraftKings:
To identify +EV, OddsShopper’s betting model indexes the odds from across the market. It then generates a breakeven price for each bet, which we call “true odds.” Once that’s done, we can figure out how much expected value we’re getting on that bet.
Here, we see that Parker’s true odds of staying under 3.5 total strikeouts are estimated to be -113. Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable. If you want to know how profitable, you can see for yourself on our results page:
As of yesterday, our model had identified 1,918 strikeout bets with an OS Rating of 1 or higher with at least two hours left until the game got underway. A nice 1,080 of those bets won, yielding a nice 10.3% ROI. Imagine the compounding returns if you had bet daily!
MLB Player Prop Pick: Mitchell Parker Under 3.5 Strikeouts -110 at DraftKings
For the best price currently available, check out our Mitchell Parker total strikeouts live odds page!
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