We feasted yesterday. The article went 2-0, cashing Rafael Devers’ over for total bases and home run as well as Luis Castillo’s under for total strikeouts. The full card went 7-3 (+3.9U). It’s a frontloaded slate on tap today, but I’ll feature some picks for the later games in this story. Check the expert picks page, which you can access for 50% off with code “POSITIVE” at checkout, for my full card. Let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Wednesday, July 31. For the rest of my notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X!
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Wednesday, July 31
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Cal Raleigh
The Seattle Mariners’ home park depresses home run production, so whenever we get to back them outside of the Evergreen State, it’s usually a much better proposition. This is especially true for Cal Raleigh, whose .187/.284/.281 slash line at home is far, far worse than his .241/.314/.578 slash line on the road.
Raleigh, a switch-hitter, gets RHP Brayan Bello in this spot. Bello isn’t great when it comes to limiting power, especially to opposite-handed batters. This season, LHBs are slashing .276/.347/.495 against him with 10 home runs. Meanwhile, Raleigh is slashing .229/.315/.410 with 13 home runs versus RHPs.
Raleigh’s actual stats are unfairly suppressed by his home park, but his expected and peripheral stats jump off the page. Sure, his .234 xBA (23rd percentile) isn’t good, but his .496 xSLG (88th) and 16.8% barrel rate (96th) certainly are. He leads the Mariners in actual home runs (23) and expected home runs (21.6), good for an average of 0.21 expected dingers per game.
I’m betting on Raleigh to go yard (+325 at BetMGM) and record multiple bases (+100 at Fanatics). There are 13 mph winds blowing out at Fenway Park today, and even if Raleigh can’t capitalize on the favorable matchup with Bello, Boston’s bullpen has allowed the fifth-most hits (387) and the 14th-most home runs (45).
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Cal Raleigh +325 at BetMGM
For the best price currently available, check out our Cal Raleigh home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Clayton Kershaw
After fumbling a 5-0 first-inning lead, the Los Angeles Dodgers will look to bounce back against the San Diego Padres tonight. It’s LHP Clayton Kershaw taking the bump for them tonight in his second appearance this season. Kershaw lasted four innings and 72 pitches in his debut last week and racked up six strikeouts along the way. It was a solid return, but the Padres are a different beast than the San Francisco Giants.
The Padres rank second in strikeouts taken per game (6.8) and third at home (6.9). They’re also third on the year in strikeout rate versus LHPs (17.6%) and improve to first if we just look at games since the arrival of Luis Arraez on May 4th (16.6%). Kershaw’s 26.2% strikeout rate last season continued a downward trend from 2022 (27.8%) and 2021 (29.5%), and I suspect the 36-year-old will keep regressing.
Enough of my projection-based notes — much of our edge stems from a market-based approach, too. If you don’t know what that means, read our guide to sports betting strategy. You’ll find Kershaw at +106 to stay under 3.5 strikeouts at Caesars, but he’ll cost you between +102 and -124 everywhere else. Pinnacle, a sharp book, is charging that -124. We’re scoring a enough positive expected value (+EV) here to warrant a wager:
To find +EV, OddsShopper’s sports betting model indexes the odds from across the market. It then calculates the breakeven price for each wager, which we call “true odds.” With that number, we can estimate how much expected value we’re getting.
Here, the model says Kershaw’s true odds of staying under 3.5 total strikeouts are +101. That’s beating the price at Caesars just enough to warrant a wager because our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable.
Wondering how profitable? Check out our results page: Our model had identified 1,277 strikeout bets with an OS Rating of 2 or higher and at least two hours before first pitch. Of those, 725 hit, yielding bettors a 11.9% ROI!
MLB Player Prop Pick: Clayton Kershaw Under 3.5 Strikeouts +106 at Caesars
For the best price currently available, check out our Clayton Kershaw total strikeouts live odds page!
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