Ugh — yesterday’s article went 1-1, cashing our Gerrit Cole under with ease but losing our Adley Rutschman over. Despite leading off, he only got two swings against Logan Allen because the Guardians pulled him after he allowed his third home run… to Colton Cowser. With a ton of games scheduled for the early afternoon, I’ve got several picks for the evening, but you can find my full card in the Discord. Let’s dive into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Wednesday, June 26. For more notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X.
Oh, and you can get your first week of OddsShopper Premium for $1 with code “DINGER”!
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Wednesday, June 26
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Gunnar Henderson
I’m not sure if the market has accepted just how dominant Gunnar Henderson really is. You’ll find him trading at +390 on Caesars for a home run tonight, but guys like Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge will rarely see their line north of +300. Henderson has 22.4 xHR this year, third-most in the MLB, behind only Judge and Marcell Ozuna.
Henderson is cooking RHPs for a .284/.365/.628 slash line and 20 of his 25 actual home runs. He also has another 13 extra-base hits. While walks are always a concern with an elite bat like Henderson, most of his walks come against LHPs, not RHPs like Carlos Carrasco.
Henderson sports elite batting stats, including a .279 xBA (83rd percentile) and a .535 xSLG (94th). Meanwhile, the pitcher he’ll start across from Carrasco, very much does not. Carrasco owns a 4.93 xERA (16th) and .271 xBA (17th). Importantly, he also recorded a 6.77 xERA (2nd) and .306 xBA (1st) last year.
I have Henderson getting multiple bases (-115 at BetRivers) and to go yard (+390 at Caesars). I don’t know how many more times we’ll be able to get Henderson at such a favorable number, either this season or in his career. Let’s hope he can make it back-to-back games with a home run against this Guardians team.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Gunnar Henderson +390 at Caesars
For the best price currently available, check out our Gunnar Henderson home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Grayson Rodriguez
We’re sticking with tonight’s Orioles game for this pick. It’s RHP Grayson Rodriguez on the bump for Baltimore, and while he has been effective to the tune of a 3.82 ERA and 3.81 xERA (55th percentile) this season, he is coming off a shelling against the Houston Astros in which he coughed up seven earned runs.
We’re fading Rodriguez on the strikeout market in another spot where he could get batted around. Cleveland has an effective offense, and we know they can avoid strikeouts, too. The Guardians rank fifth in strikeouts taken per game (7.3) and second in strikeout rate versus RHPs (18.4%).
Rodriguez’s strikeout prop is trading at only 4.5, which may seem low, but it isn’t in this matchup. The under will cost between +118 and -105 almost everywhere. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under at +108. However, FanDuel is hanging an off-market +128, creating some positive expected value (+EV) at their site:
OddsShopper’s betting model indexes the odds from across the sports betting market in order to generate a breakeven price for each bet, called “true odds.” Once we’ve done so, we can estimate how much value we’re getting relative to that point.
In this example, Rodriguez’s true odds of staying under 4.5 total strikeouts are estimated to be +118, a number is beating the price available at FanDuel.
Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable. If you want to know how profitable, you can see for yourself on our results page:
This year, our model has identified 441 bets with an OS Rating of five or higher with at least two hours before game start. A tidy 260 of those bets won, producing a 17.1% ROI.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Grayson Rodriguez Under 4.5 Total Strikeouts +128 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Grayson Rodriguez total strikeouts live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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