Hell yeah, brother — yesterday’s article went 2-0, cashing a David Peterson under and a Bobby Witt Jr. over with ease. With the Witt dinger (well, dingers), you can now get our MLB betting model and Discord for $1 with code “DINGER” at checkout! Let’s stay hot on today’s hectic slate as we dive into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Wednesday, June 5. For more notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X.
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Wednesday, June 5
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Paul Skenes
Rookie LHP Paul Skenes is electric. Over his first four starts (and 22 IP), he has racked up 30 strikeouts, good for 7.5 per outing and 12.3 per nine innings. However, three of those four matchups came against teams that rank below the league average in strikeouts taken per game, the Cubs (2x) and Tigers. A whopping 27 of his strikeouts came in those games.
Tonight, Skenes must pitch against a Los Angeles Dodgers lineup that ranks 14th in strikeouts taken per game (8.2). L.A. also ranks fourth-best in strikeout rate against southpaws (18.5%), so even though Skenes owns an absurd 35.7% strikeout rate (98th percentile), he is in for a tough task tonight.
You’ll find Skenes’ strikeout prop set to 6.5, which is right about where the books have been taking action on him in each of his first four starts. You’ll find the under priced between +100 and -110 at most public books. However, DraftKings has a +105, and with sharp books like Caesars and Pinnacle in the -130 range, this bet is rendering with positive expected value (+EV) in our market-based MLB betting model:
With sharp books listing Skenes’ under for about -130, our tools estimate the true odds (a breakeven price) for this bet to be -104, which the line at DraftKings is beating substantially (and the lines at BetMGM and Fanatics are beating as well, just for a smaller margin). Our back-tested simulations show that bets like this one are profitable when wagered over the long term.
I can also tell you how profitable bets like this one have been over the long term with a look at our results page. Every total strikeout prop with an OS Rating of 3 or higher two hours before game start had a 13.4% ROI over a 745-bet sample. At DraftKings, those bets are up 28.9% over a 57-bet sample.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Paul Skenes Under 6.5 Strikeouts +105 at DraftKings
For the best price currently available, check out our Paul Skenes total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Juan Soto
The New York Yankees will host the Minnesota Twins tonight, and it’s RHP Chris Paddack’s turn in the rotation. Overall, Paddack hasn’t been terrible this season — his 4.32 xERA (32nd percentile) is just below average — but he has been terrible with limiting power. Paddack has coughed up 11 actual and 11.5 expected home runs this season (and 13 expected home runs at Yankee Stadium).
Paddack’s problems with power have been more obvious against same-handed batters, as they’ve slashed .261/.297/.448 against him throughout his career with 33 home runs. That means Aaron Judge (+210 at FanDuel) isn’t a bad bet. I have a bit of exposure on him to go yard and get multiple bases.
But it’s not like Paddack has been much better against opposite-handed batters. They’re slashing .239/.283/.416 against him with 31 home runs, and lefty Juan Soto (+300 at FanDuel) is trading at too long of a price for this matchup. It helps that Soto is destroying righties to the tune of .316/.418/.621 and 14 home runs this year.
Soto’s statistical profile is just nuts. His .324 xBA (98th percentile) and .677 xSLG (100th) suggest his hot start to the season is very much sustainable. While he trails Judge by four actual home runs, that margin is 2.3 for expected home runs, and he trails him by just one expected home run in Yankee Stadium. Let’s hope Paddack implodes today in the Bronx.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Juan Soto +300 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Juan Soto home run live odds page!
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