Yesterday, we cashed a +120 ticket for Kyle Tucker on Discord — he didn’t go yard for us, but he did get a double. We lost our over for Jose Ramirez while our Chris Bassitt bet voided. Tonight, I advise putting some action on a few more MLB player props, including two home run picks and a bet from our MLB betting model. Want to take our profitable MLB betting tools for a spin? You can get your first week or month for 50% off — keep reading to find out how!
Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our MLB betting tools, including our MLB weather report, or our other MLB articles! Also, our guides about +EV MLB betting, MLB player prop strategy and home run betting strategy may be of assistance.
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Wednesday, May 15
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Lars Nootbaar
Oh, boy. It’s a pumpkin-on-pumpkin matchup tonight in Anaheim, as RHP Lance Lynn will square off against RHP Griffin Canning. With Mike Trout out, we’re turning to a St. Louis bat in this spot. Lars Nootbaar, a lefty batsman who is slashing .191/.337/.353 against RHPs, is the best value. Those actual stats aren’t good, but his .255 xBA (56th percentile) and .449 xSLG (69th percentile) suggest he has gotten unlucky.
The main reason we’re backing Nootbaar is because Canning struggles against LHHs. They’re slashing .302/.364/.531 against him with 11 extra-base hits and five home runs. He has only given up one home run in his last five starts (after allowing five in his first three), but his 5.01 xERA (20th percentile) a .272 xBA allowed (22nd) still aren’t good.
The MLB weather report also points to some value here. It calls for nine mph winds out through center field of Angel Stadium with 65-degree temperatures and 65% humidity. Angel Stadium already ranks seventh in overall park factors for batters (101) and fifth for home runs (115), and while the statistical anomaly that is Shohei Ohtani certainly skews that data somewhat, this is a friendlier park for batters than Nootbaar’s home stadium of Busch Stadium.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 Total Bases +145 at bet365 & Home Run +525 at Caesars
For the best price currently available, check out our Lars Nootbaar total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Garrett Crochet
The Chicago White Sox will take on the Washington Nationals tonight. It’s LHP Garrett Crochet on the mound for Chicago again, and while he owns a 4.63 ERA, his 2.15 xERA suggests he has been one of the unluckiest pitchers this season. He sports a dominant 34.2% strikeout rate that’s way up from 18.8% he recorded in 12.2 innings pitched last year.
The MLB betting model recommends that we fade Crochet on the strikeout markets tonight despite his elite strikeout rate. For one, the Nationals rank a solid 12th in strikeouts taken per game (8.2). For another, the model cares about only the market, and we’re beating it substantially. We’re getting loads of positive expected value (+EV) at FanDuel:
We can only buy Crochet to stay under 6.5 strikeouts for -106 at FanDuel — no other public book comes anywhere close to that number. Caesars has the next-best number at -151; everywhere else is between -155 and -175. Pinnacle, a sharp book, is at -191.
The 6.5 is on our card today specifically because of that market disparity. It’s rendering as a +EV bet for that reason — our tools, which index all the odds from across the market to generate a breakeven price, say this bet is profitable at odds of -148 or better. We’re obviously clearing that number by a boatload.
Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and back-tested simulations to show our model is worth it.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Garrett Crochet Under 6.5 Total Strikeouts -106 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Garrett Crochet total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Jo Adell
When I follow my home run betting strategy, I start by looking at the market. Although no wager is trading as a +EV bet in the model tonight, some are close to that threshold than others, and it’s easy to tell from looking at our MLB +EV betting tools. Jo Adell is trading at +700 at BetMGM. The next-best price is a +558 at Pinnacle.
Adell may not be a household name yet, but he arguably should be. The 25-year-old is slashing .248/.304/.505 with seven home runs. His .293 xBA (89th percentile) and .564 xSLG (96th) are both elite. Adell’s seven actual home runs rank third on the team, and he has seven batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences at Angel Stadium.
It helps that Adell will take on RHP Lance Lynn, who led the majors in expected home runs coughed up last season. He has only surrendered five actual and 5.6 expected home runs this year, but 4.21 xERA (39th percentile) and 91.8 mph fastball velocity (17th percentile) point to him as a pitcher to fade. Let’s back Adell to record at least a base (-129 at Caesars) and go yard (+700 at BetMGM).
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Jo Adell +700 at BetMGM
For the best price currently available, check out our Jo Adell home runs live odds page!
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