Wednesday brings us a mixed slate of MLB action, with a first wave of games starting in the early afternoon and a second wave starting in the evening. I’ll be focusing on the later slate in this article but will have picks for the early games in Discord. We’re looking to stay hot after cashing tickets for Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette last night. Let’s dive into my MLB player prop picks today, including two home run picks and one bet from our MLB betting model. Hoping to take our profitable MLB betting tools for a spin? You get a month for only $1… keep reading to find out how!
Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our MLB betting tools, including our MLB weather report, or our other MLB articles! Also, our guides about +EV MLB betting, MLB player prop strategy and home run betting strategy may be of assistance.
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Wednesday, May 22
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani is good. You know it, I know it, the books know it — but sometimes they don’t appreciate how game-breakingly good he truly is. That’s what we’re seeing tonight for his home matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks and RHP Ryne Nelson.
For starters, Ohtani is pummeling pitchers this year, especially those who throw righty. He sports an elite .356/.425/.655 slash line in all situations with 13 home runs. His line improves to .377/.458/.746 against RHPs, which also counts 10 of his home runs.
Those numbers aren’t noise, either. Some batsmen who put up stats that good early in a season can’t sustain them, but Ohtani’s .363 xBA (100th percentile) and .710 xSLG (100th) reveal his actual numbers should be even better.
Meanwhile, Nelson is floundering against opposite-handed batters. To be clear, he’s floundering against everyone, as he owns a 7.06 ERA and 5.16 xERA (16th percentile). His .310 xBA allowed (3rd percentile) is brutal. Lefties like Ohtani are slashing .292/.338/.538 against him with seven extra-base hits and three home runs.
Lastly, the MLB weather report says we can expect 63-degree temperatures and 75% humidity at Dodger Stadium today. A 9.2 mph wind will be blowing out through right-center field. Look for Ohtani to capitalize in a favorable matchup in favorable conditions.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases -135 at bet365 & Home Run +230 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Shohei Ohtani total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Tarik Skubal
We’ll turn to the early slate for this pick from our MLB betting model. At 2 p.m. ET, the Kansas City Royals will host the Detroit Tigers, and it’ll be LHP Tarik Skubal taking the mound for the Motor City Kitties. Skubal owns an elite 1.80 ERA, which his 2.09 xERA (97th percentile) suggests is no fluke.
Skubal has become an excellent strikeout pitcher, recording a 31.6% strikeout rate (92nd) after recording a 32.9% last season. However, he’ll take on a Royals team that ranks second in strikeouts taken per game (6.8), and the MLB betting model recommends fading him on the strikeout markets. We’re too much positive expected value (+EV) at FanDuel:
While Skubal clocks in at +106 to stay under 6.5 strikeouts at FanDuel, the same wager is trading at odds between +100 and -120 at most public books. Caesars, the sharpest of the public books, has this one at -135.
This line renders as a +EV bet on FanDuel because of this market disparity. Our MLB betting tools work by indexing the odds from across the betting market; adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more; and generating a breakeven price (called true odds).
Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and back-tested simulations to show our model is worth it.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Tarik Skubal Under 6.5 Strikeouts +106 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Tarik Skubal total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Bryce Harper
The Philadelphia Phillies and Texas Rangers will do battle at Citizens Bank Park this evening, and we can expect a 10-mph wind blowing straight out through center field. With 83-degree temperatures and 56% humidity in the forecast, conditions are favorable for home runs.
I like Bryce Harper to go yard today for more than just the weather, though. He’ll take on RHP Dane Dunning, whose 4.10 ERA is already inflated relative to his 5.55 xERA (12th percentile). He leads the Rangers in home runs allowed, both actual (7) and expected (7.6), coughing up 10 batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences in Philadelphia.
Lefties like Harper are slashing .175/.299/.474 versus Dunning with five of those actual dingers. Meanwhile, Harper is slashing .276/.395/.561 versus righties like Dunning with eight home runs. Harper’s .276 xBA (79th percentile) and .527 xSLG (91st) suggest his strong start to the season is very much sustainable, and I expect him to stay hot with a dinger (+285 at FanDuel) or multiple bases (-105 at FanDuel) this evening.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Bryce Harper +285 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Bryce Harper home runs live odds page!
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