Let’s go! Although this article went 1-2 yesterday, we cashed a home run ticket for Juan Soto. Still, we just about broke even with the prop unit sizing posted in Discord, and we can do better. Let’s rally tonight with some more MLB player prop picks, including two home run picks and one bet from our MLB betting model. Want to try out our Discord or our MLB betting tools? Thanks to Soto and Will Benson, you can get a week for $1… keep reading to find out how!
Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our MLB betting tools, including our MLB weather report, or our other MLB articles! Also, our guides about +EV MLB betting, MLB player prop strategy and home run betting strategy may be of assistance.
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Wednesday, May 29
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Aaron Judge
Having Aaron Judge and Juan Soto on the same team should be illegal, but it’s not. We cashed Soto to go yard last night and we’re turning to the other Bronx Bomber tonight against LHP Tyler Anderson in Angel Stadium. The MLB weather report calls for a steady 7 mph breeze out with 70-degree temps and 61% humidity, all of which should help the ball carry further.
Let’s talk about Anderson first because you already know that Judge is an absolute game-breaker. Anderson, despite sporting a 2.52 ERA, owns a much worse 4.62 xERA, suggesting he has gotten quite lucky. His .255 xBA and .464 xSLG rank among the slate’s worst as well. Anderson has coughed up only seven home runs on 7.3 expected as well.
Importantly, opposite-handed batters like Judge are slashing .214/.279/.345 against the southpaw. On their face, those numbers aren’t great, but the 14 extra base hits and four home runs are intriguing, especially when you consider that the majority of Anderson’s starts have come against teams that rank below the league average in xwOBA.
If you aren’t sold on Judge, note that he is slashing .257/.490/.629 against southpaws with seven extra-base hits. The 16 walks are a concern, but with Anderson having walked only 15 righties all season I’m not too worried. Judge’s .295 xBA (92nd percentile) and .723 xSLG (100th) mean he can get multiple bases (-119 at Caesars) or a home run (+215 at FanDuel) pretty much at will.
MLB Player Prop & Home Run Pick Today: Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases -119 at Caesars & Home Run +215 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Aaron Judge total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: David Peterson
The New York Mets will start LHP David Peterson against the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight. While Peterson recorded a solid 26% strikeout rate (70th percentile) last year, he is yet to make an appearance this year, and this Dodgers lineup is a brutal one to debut against. Los Angeles
That said, our MLB betting model doesn’t care about narratives or Peterson’s strikeout rate. It cares about the market. We’re beating it substantially by playing the under at FanDuel are scoring loads of positive expected value (+EV) in the process:
Peterson’s strikeout total is set to 5.5 pretty much everywhere, but the under is trading between -150 and -180 at every public book but one, FanDuel, where it’s -128. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has this at -171.
This line renders as a +EV bet at those books due to of this market disparity. Our MLB betting tools work by indexing the odds from across the betting market; adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more; and generating a breakeven price (called true odds).
Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and back-tested simulations to show our model is worth it.
MLB Betting Model Pick: David Peterson Under 5.5 Strikeouts -128 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our David Peterson total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Christian Walker
The Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers will square off early on Wednesday afternoon, and while I usually try to stick to the late slate, I’ve just got to fade RHP Dane Dunning today. Dunning was originally supposed to start on Dinger Tuesday but didn’t, which stinks, because Christian Walker was going to be a great play. We’ll back him to go yard and get multiple bases.
The logic here is simple: Dunning struggles with power while Walker excels with it, especially when facing same-handed pitchers. While Dunning’s .205/.298/.361 slash line allowed to righties is a bit of a concern, Walker is slashing .500/.600/.500 against him over an admittedly small sample.
To illustrate Dunning’s struggles, let’s look at his expected stats. He has coughed up eight actual and 8.8 expected home runs, including nine balls that would’ve cleared the fences at Globe Life Field. His .257 xBA isn’t terrible, but his .497 xSLG is second-worst among al starting pitchers today.
Meanwhile, Walker is slashing .255/.361/.474 against same-handed pitchers with 14 extra-base hits and eight home runs. His .261 xBA (64th percentile) and .476 xSLG (80th) are both impressive. He has a solid 10 actual home runs on 9.7 expected, including 10 batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences in Arlington.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Christian Walker +475 at Fanatics
For the best price currently available, check out our Christian Walker home run live odds page!
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