There are two national TV games on today’s MLB slate, with Padres-Tigers kicking things off in the early game and Mets-Red Sox wrapping up the day for Sunday Night Baseball. OddsShopper’s model has identified a couple of top MLB player props for each of these games, as well as plenty others for all of the games today. Without further ado, here are the players to watch and picks to make on the MLB player prop markets today.
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MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Zach McKinstry, Carlos Carrasco
San Diego Padres at Detroit Tigers | 12:05 p.m. ET on Peacock
In the early TV game, the Tigers welcome a tough pitcher in Joe Musgrove to Detroit for the last of these teams’ interleague series. The first two games were not overly kind to the Tigers in their home park, but OddsShopper projections are liking Zach McKinstry to score a run today.
McKinstry has already scored two of the Tigers’ seven runs this series and has reached base four times. In fact, he has a three-game run streak going, and the guy hitting behind him, Riley Greene, has a 1.104 OPS over the last four games. And while McKinstry is only a decent base stealer — 12 stolen bases on 13 attempts — Musgrove has allowed 18 steals on 19 attempts this year, so the opportunity could be there if McKinstry gets on base again.
Musgrove is pitching great lately, but he has been gotten for six-plus hits several times over the last month and change. Even against a mediocre Tigers lineup, he could be live to surrender a few baserunners and runs early in the lineup. McKinstry for over 0.5 runs is +155 at BetRivers, but OddsShopper’s true odds have it at +146. That gives the over an expected value of 4%, which is solid leverage on the market despite an expected win rate of just 41%. OddsShopper recommends a bet size of $9 here.
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Best MLB Player Prop: Zach McKinstry Over 0.5 Runs (+155 at BetRivers)
New York Mets vs. Boston Red Sox | 7:10 p.m. ET on ESPN
For Sunday Night Baseball, nothing is looking juicier than Carlos Carrasco’s strikeout under. PointsBet has Carrasco’s strikeout line at 4.5, a number which is, frankly, not indicative of the 2023 version of the Mets pitcher. He is only averaging 6.6 strikeouts per nine innings and a 16.6% overall rate, both 10-year lows, and though he hit the over in three of his last four, those are Carrasco’s only outings of five-plus strikeouts in 2023.
The Red Sox are also among the least strikeout-prone teams in baseball this year. On top of that, this game is taking place at Fenway, and Boston drops its team strikeout rate around 4 percentage points this year when playing at home. Carrasco has also struggled mightily at Fenway in his career, allowing an OPS over 1.000 and averaging three strikeouts per game there — it is a small sample of just five starts but worth noting, nonetheless.
Carrasco’s under here is one of the very best player props on the board today, national TV game or otherwise. The -165 odds at PointsBet on it may seem massive, but OddsShopper’s true odds have the under at -187, leading to a strong 5% EV on a bet with a 65% expected win rate. As such, the recommended bet size is $26, which as of writing is the highest mark for any bet on the Sunday slate. Get in now before PointsBet adjusts the line!
Best MLB Player Prop: Carlos Carrasco Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-165 at PointsBet)
