OddsShopper’s PrizePicks Builder is the best tool out there when it comes to creating valuable entries. Constructing +EV plays with MLB PrizePicks is tough, as it usually requires a minimum of five picks, which inevitably lowers the expected win rate. However, using OddsShopper’s PrizePicks Builder gives us a chance, as it scours the market to find the leverages points. Today’s entry, as curated by OddsShopper, loves the early game in Chicago, so let’s get into the picks and figure out how to make some money.
MLB PrizePicks Player Projections | May 26
Hunter Greene Fewer Than 7.5 Strikeouts
Few players have better strikeout stuff than Greene, as he has a 30.8% strikeout rate and averages 12.4 per nine. And the Cubs are a decent matchup for him since they are in the top half of MLB in strikeout rate. That said, he is also getting touched up in some of his starts, posting an ERA of 4.68 and going less than six innings in seven of 10 outings. That has led to Greene exceeding 7.5 strikeouts 50% of the time.
The Cubs are not a great offensive team, but they are certainly competent, with slightly above average hard-hit rates and ISOs. It is reasonable to think they will be able to get to Greene enough to chase him early, and that is the typical recipe for Green striking out fewer than 7.5. OddsShopper’s PrizePicks Builder gives this play a 55% expected win rate.
Jordan Lyles More Than 3.5 Strikeouts
Virtually every one of Lyles’ statistics is miserable. His ERA is over 7.00, his 0-8 record is a league worst, and he is surrendering power in droves. However, his 6.8 strikeouts per nine are about his career average — so in this one regard Lyles is meeting expectations. It is still not a great rate, but it suggests he needs to get to only 5.1 innings at that clip to reach four strikeouts. And despite his terrible numbers, Lyles has gotten through 5.1 innings in over half his starts. That Nationals do not strike out a lot, but four in five-ish innings while shelling Lyles is a perfectly reasonable expectation. OddsShopper’s PrizePicks Builder gives this more play a 54% win expectancy.
Ian Happ More Than 0.5 Total Bases
Happ only has a hit in two of his last five, but he is well over 50% on one total base for the whole season. And again, Greene, while a swing-and-miss maestro, is susceptible to hard contact. Happ is hitting .289 on the season and is second on the Cubs in hits, so he is among the most likely to get good swings on Greene in this matchup. OddsShopper’s PrizePicks Builder likes him to come through, giving him a 54% chance of exceeding 0.5 total bases.
Jose Caballero More Than 0.5 Total Bases
Unlike Happ, Caballero has been doing his best work at the plate over the last month. He has hits in 11 of his last 15 games in which he had a full allotment of plate appearances. He no longer has a matchup against the miserable Athletics, now facing the dominating Mitch Keller, but Caballero is showing enough to not be too concerned about the tough matchup. Plus, despite hitting at the bottom of the order, he is often getting four plate appearances in a solid Mariners lineup. OddsShopper’s MLB PrizePicks projections like the more here, with a 54% expected win rate.
Shea Langeliers More Than 0.5 Total Bases
This is probably the least comfortable more play on the slate, at least in terms of game situation, but OddsShopper is still over 50-50 on this win rate. Langeliers is 0-for in his last three games and faces Houston’s Hunter Brown. Now, Brown’s numbers are decent, but he has four games in which he has given up at least six hits (mixed in with a couple two-hit outings as well), so he can be somewhat volatile. Langeliers will likely need four plate appearances to get there, but this is not as bad of a matchup as it seems for him to get a base.
Justin Turner More Than 1.5 Total Bases
This is a bit of a tough one since Turner has only gone for two total bases 16 times in 46 chances this year (34.8%), but this is a prime spot for him to do it. Brandon Pfaadt is a rookie allowing 10.4 hits per nine and a 1.550 WHIP this year. He has only made four starts, so the sample is small, but he allowed at least six hits in three of those and has allowed seven total home runs. The 50% hard-hit rate allowed is especially telling, so even if Turner only gets two cracks at Pfaadt, there is a solid chance of one resulting in an extra-base hit.
