In order to maximize the potential of tonight’s lineup of MLB games on PrizePicks, we will once again rely on OddsShopper’s PrizePicks Builder to create a valuable entry. As per usual, constructing a +EV play with MLB PrizePicks typically entails selecting a minimum of five picks, which inevitably lowers the expected win rate. However, with the assistance of OddsShopper’s PrizePicks Builder we can still give ourselves a chance. Let’s now find the best MLB PrizePicks for Friday.
MLB PrizePicks Player Projections | May 19
Marcus Stroman More Than 4.5 Strikeouts
Stroman’s strikeout numbers still are not reaching the highs his stuff would suggest, but he is averaging a career-best 8.5 per nine this year. He is striking out a little over 5.5 per start as well, as he has only failed to get through six innings twice in nine starts. That has led to Stroman striking out at least five in seven of nine games this season, and though the Phillies look more daunting with Bryce Harper in the lineup, they have still struck out the 10th most.
OddsShopper gives Stroman 57% chance of reaching five strikeouts today.
Ranger Suarez More Than 4.5 Strikeouts
Sticking with the game in Philadelphia, Suarez has the same projection as his counterpart at 4.5. He has only one start under his belt this year, which lasted only four innings, but Suarez struck out four in that limited time. Last year he had 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings, and he will need to go exactly six innings at that rate to reach five strikeouts. The Cubs strike out slightly more than average, however, so there is reason to think Suarez could approach 2021’s 9.1 strikeouts per nine against them. In that case, he would only need to go five innings — which he did in 20 of 29 starts in 2022.
OddsShopper has Suarez at a 55% expected win rate for more than 4.5 strikeouts.
Yusei Kikuchi Fewer Than 5.5 Strikeouts
Kikuchi’s perfect 5-0 record belies the fast that his strikeouts have become less consistent this year. His per-nine rate is down to 8.6 (from 11.1 last year) despite working deeper into games, and he has hit this projection in half of his starts — failing to do so twice in games where he completed six innings. Tonight Kikuchi gets the Orioles, a team that never struck out more than four times against him — let alone five — in three starts in 2022, and this year Baltimore in in the bottom third of MLB in strikeouts.
This is not a great matchup for Kikuchi, and his numbers are not strong enough to suggest he can turn his fortunes around against the Orioles. OddsShopper gives him a 57% chance of staying under 5.5 strikeouts.
Patrick Wisdom More Than 0.5 Total Bases
Back to the Cubs-Phillies game, Wisdom gets the benefit of facing a pitcher with just one start under his belt this year. The one-game sample for Suarez is not great for him, as he gave up seven hits in just four innings. His career WHIP is 1.279, so that is likely a blip, but he clearly can be had. Wisdom does, unfortunately, walk quite a bit and strike out a ton, but Suarez’s career walk rate is low enough that OddsShopper is comfortable predicting Wisdom to get four at-bats. He hits in the middle of the order for a Cubs offense that is getting runners on base, after all.
With Wisdom heating up a bit (hits in five of his last seven), OddsShopper gives him a 56% chance of getting at least one base.
Martin Maldonado More Than 0.5 Total Bases
Those looking for hitters to back in any format know that Ken Waldichuk is the guy to short. He has a brutal 1.829 WHIP and allows 11.4 hits per nine, which offsets the fact that he walks 11.7% of batters. Plus, despite his struggles, Waldichuk is working deep-ish into games, so most players can get at least two, somtimes three cracks at him.
Maldonado is hardly a hit machine — he is batting .177 and has just two multi-hit games — but he has also hit safely in seven of 10 games this month. The matchup is perfect, and Maldonado is swinging the bat well enough to merit a 55% win rate on OddsShopper.
All together this five-pick entry has a 5% win expectancy and a solid 17% ROI.
