To make the most of tonight’s slate of MLB games on PrizePicks, we will again turn to OddsShopper’s PrizePicks Builder to get a high-value entry. As always, building a +EV play with MLB PrizePicks usually requires at least five picks, which also obviously drives down the expected win rate. But as long as we have OddsShopper’s PrizePicks Builder, we can give ourselves a shot. Now let’s find the best MLB PrizePicks for Monday.
Editor’s Note: This article was originally published the morning of 5/15, odds are subject to change.
MLB PrizePicks Player Projections | May 15
James Outman Over 0.5 Total Bases
Outman has slowed down a bit the last few games, going hitless in back-to-back starts after a four-game hitting streak. That said, he has at least one hit in 62.2% of his starts this year and in over 50% of his May starts. Today Outman gets a matchup against Pablo Lopez, who is pitching well and has a strikeout rate over 30% this year, but Lopez’s walk rate is also pretty low, so he is keeping his pitches in the zone. That portends pitches for Outman to hit in his early at-bats against Lopez, and as long as he gets four or five plate appearances, he will get chances to get at least one hit.
OddsShopper gives him a 56% chance of getting a base tonight.
Jorge Mateo Over 0.5 Total Bases
Like Outman, Mateo is on a short cold streak, but also like Outman, for the season he is getting a hit in more than half of his games. He is also averaging just shy of a hit per game and had an eight-game hit streak that ran from the end of April to the first week of May. Yes, Shohei Ohtani is a brutal opponent, but he gave up five and six hits in his last two starts, including a game where he struck out 13. So even if he is dealing, he can put guys on base, and Mateo can take advantage even at the bottom of the Orioles order.
OddsShopper gives him a 54% chance of getting a hit.
Austin Nola Over 0.5 Total Bases
Not much is going right for Nola, but not much is going right for Brad Keller either. His WHIP is over 1.7 after allowing 11 hits two games ago, and if the Padres chase him early, the Royals boast one of the worst bullpen ERAs in baseball. Even though Nola is below the Mendoza line, this is a good spot for him to at least get four plate appearances — which he has not seen in a game since May 9.
OddsShopper gives him a 54% chance of getting a base.
Paul DeJong Over 0.5 Total Bases
DeJong is still riding his hot start. He did not see action until late April, but since then he is hitting over .300 and has hits in 10 of his 16 games (62.5%). He also has at least one hit in six of nine games this month. This is another pick against a decent pitcher, as Freddy Peralta has a WHIP down around 1.2 and a decent strikeout rate, but it is not extraordinarily high and his walk rate is down in the 8% range. DeJong should hit in the middle (or lower middle) of the Cardinals order, so four plate appearances is not an unreasonable expectation. DeJong has a hit in nine of 11 games in which he had four trips to the plate, so his odds are good as long as he gets there.
OddsShopper gives him a 53% chance of getting a hit.
Tanner Houck Over 4.5 Strikeouts
Houck is a modest strikeout pitcher who gives up a good number of runs, but the Mariners also strike out a ton — second most in MLB. Despite Houck’s mere 20.6% strikeout rate, he has hit this over in four of seven starts this season, and he has gone at least five innings in all but one of those seven. It makes sense for him to get a slight boost to his average against Seattle, so getting into the sixth inning gives him a good shot at five strikeouts. OddsShopper gives him a 54% chance hitting that number tonight.
All together, these MLB PrizePicks make a 10x entry with a 4% expected win rate on OddsShopper.
