OddsShopper’s PrizePicks Builder is the ultimate tool for crafting valuable entries. It can be challenging to create profitable plays with MLB PrizePicks, usually requiring a minimum of five picks, which obviously also decreases the expected win rate. Fortunately, with OddsShopper, we have an opportunity to identify leverage points by thoroughly exploring the market. Today’s MLB PrizePicks entry, as curated by OddsShopper, is primarily in love with the National League Central, particularly a nominal star who is struggling mightily to find his power.
MLB PrizePicks Player Projections | May 28
Colin Rea Fewer Than 4.5 Strikeouts
The Giants have the league’s second-highest strikeout rate, but that does not offset the fact that Rea is not putting up high strikeout numbers at all right now. He has only exceeded 4.5 twice in eight starts, and one of those six misses came against these Giants earlier this month — he recorded four in six innings. At 7.2 strikeouts per nine, Rea needs an average of 6.1 innings to hit the more. He has yet to go that distance this season.
As such, OddsShopper’s PrizePicks Builder gives the less play a 58% hit rate.
Graham Ashcraft Fewer Than 4.5 Strikeouts
Ashcraft’s numbers are quite similar to Rea’s — 30% hit rate on more than 4.5 strikeouts, 6.9 strikeouts per nine, 17.4% strikeout rate — only he does not get the benefit of taking on one of the most strikeout-prone teams. Ashcraft is facing the Cubs, who rank ninth in that category. He has also been getting hit harder this year than Rea and is thus vulnerable to getting pulled early. He has given up seven-plus earned runs three times already this year.
OddsShopper’s PrizePicks Builder has Ashcraft fewer than 4.5 strikeouts at a 55% win expectancy.
Nolan Arenado Fewer Than 1.5 Total Bases
This has not been a great start for Arenado, with his slugging and ISO both well below his career averages. He also only has 15 total extra-base hits this season. As a result, counting on him to get to two total bases requires some confidence in his ability to get multiple hits, which has only done in 14 of 51 games this year. The matchup against Cleveland’s Hunter Gaddis is decent, but Arenado will be on the road at a ballpark that is basically neutral compared to his home stadium. OddsShopper’s PrizePicks Builder likes the less play here on 1.5 and gives it a 55% win rate.
Jared Walsh More Than 0.5 Total Bases
The sample on Walsh this year is small and has not produced many great results yet; he has just two total bases across 21 plate appearances. That said, Walsh’s 2021 season was very strong, and last year, despite struggling much of the year, he still recorded at least one hit in over half his games. He also gets a matchup against a pitcher in Eury Perez with a similarly low sample size in 2023, as he has just 14 innings in three starts. He has, however, given up three home runs and has a 5.07 FIP, suggesting he could be had, and Walsh also has the platoon advantage.
OddsShopper’s PrizePicks Builder has Walsh’s more on 0.5 total bases at a 55% hit rate.
Bonus MLB PrizePick: Luke Maile More Than 0.5 Total Bases
All told, these five picks lead to an 8% EV and a 5% total win expectancy.
