The 2024 MLB season is just around the corner. We’ll start with a pair of games in Seoul before the rest of the league celebrates Opening Day next Thursday. As we look to the MLB win total markets, one team stands out as majorly underrated and has the potential to blow the current number out of the water. Let’s dive into our top MLB win total bet for 2024. If you’re hungry for more, check out our MLB betting tools or the rest of our MLB betting articles!
MLB Win Total Bets: This Team Looks Majorly Underrated (2024)
MLB Win Total Bets: Kansas City Royals O/U 73.5 Wins
Yes, you heard me right. The team I’m most excited to bet on in the MLB this season is… the Kansas City Royals. Sure, they’re coming off an embarrassing 56-106 season, but just about everything that could’ve gone wrong went wrong for them. They lost several pieces of their rotation, including Brad Keller, Kris Bubic and Daniel Lynch, to injuries. Their young offensive core just couldn’t keep them in games, and, by the end of the year, the Royals were competing with the Oakland Athletics for the worst record in the show.
These issues create a fantastic buy-low spot for Kansas City. Their win total was trading at 68.5 heading into last season, so the 73.5 they’re trading at now is only an increase of five games. Of course, we’ll need them to be 17 wins better this year than last to actually cash the over, but it’s worth noting that the market was only slightly lower on the Royals at this point last season.
Kansas City put together a rock-solid offseason, largely thanks to a spending spree engineered by general manager J.J. Picollo, a former player and a longtime member of the Royals organization. The Royals added several key pieces this offseason, including two starting pitchers, Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo, who replace Zack Greinke and Brad Keller. This gives the Royals a steady rotation to open the year (and one that could change should Lynch improve or Bubic recover from Tommy John surgery as expected):
| Pitcher | 2023 ERA | 2023 xERA |
|---|---|---|
| Seth Lugo | 3.57 | 4.42 |
| Michael Wacha | 3.22 | 4.27 |
| Cole Ragans | 3.57 | 3.33 |
| Brady Singer | 5.52 | 4.96 |
| Jordan Lyles | 6.28 | 4.96 |
The Royals also added some arms to their bullpen. Relievers Chris Stratton (3.58 xERA) and Will Smith (3.35 xERA) give them quality arms with veteran experience that will hopefully help this cast of young talent reach higher levels. The Royals had the second-worst bullpen ERA last year (5.23), likely due in part to their lack of depth at starting pitcher.
On offense, the Royals have a steady group of bats anchored by franchise player Bobby Witt Jr. (.369 xwOBA) and longtime team captain Salvador Perez (.327 xwOBA). They added Garrett Hampson (.291 xwOBA) and Hunter Renfroe (.289 xwOBA), neither of whom are great everyday bats, but both of whom offer depth and veteran experience.
Behind Witt, Kansas City’s young core includes the likes of Nelson Velazquez (.374 xwOBA), Vinnie Pasquantino (.350 xwOBA) and MJ Melendez (.325 xwOBA), all of whom offer exciting upside if they can stay healthy. The Royals ranked 16th as a team in xwOBA last year (.319), but variance did them in — they ranked just 26th in wOBA (.303). For some perspective, the Baltimore Orioles recorded the same xwOBA but ranked 14th in wOBA (.320). If the Royals had caught a few more breaks last year, they probably wouldn’t have been mired back with the A’s.
It’s also worth noting that this year’s AL Central is… bad. The Chicago White Sox are still re-tooling and own a far lower win total than the Royals (60.5). The Tigers are projected for a slight uptick in wins (80.5) despite their still-shaky roster. I’m not high on the Minnesota Twins, especially after their rough offseason, but their win total (87.5) is higher than the 87 games they won last year. If the Royals were playing in another, more competitive division, I would understand their current win total, but they don’t, so I’m eager to get some action on them.
The best is yet to come for this Royals team, and while it may not lead to an AL Central title, they should certainly have a slightly higher win total than the 73.5 at FanDuel. Perhaps that’s why DraftKings and other books have upped it to 74.5!
MLB Win Total Bet: Kansas City Royals OVER 73.5 Wins -110 at FanDuel
