We found our way to the winning column yesterday with the no run first inning bet on the Athletics and Mets. Let’s look for the same result with our NRFI bets today, as I’m targeting one game in particular throughout today’s MLB card.
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NRFI BETS TODAY: Best No Run First Inning Picks & Predictions
Twins-Rangers | NRFI Bets Today
Simeon Woods Richardson has been the NRFI king with an impressive 18-2 (90%) record this year. A large part of his success is his ability to limit powerful contact; he allows fewer than one home run per nine innings and keeps opponents’ hard-hit rate low. He’ll face a Rangers lineup that has struggled all year — and even more recently with an 86 wRC+ and a .669 OPS against right-handed pitchers over the past month.
Andrew Heaney gets the nod for the home team with his solid 16-7 (70%) NRFI record. Although the southpaw displays some shaky metrics, a few positive stats support the argument for trusting him through the first inning. Despite an xFIP over 4.30, he boasts a low batting average on balls in play (.285) and a barrel rate of just 7.8%. While this Twins lineup is lethal, Heaney has the tools to overcome them … for at least a half inning. Opponents are struggling to make consistent contact against him, and he has an impressive 12% swinging-strike rate.
Plus, as dominant as Minnesota has been all season, the bats have cooled off over the past 30 days, with an 82 wRC+ and a .652 OPS against lefties.
Let’s hope both teams continue their struggles at the plate.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Twins/Rangers NRFI (-105, Caesars Sportsbook)
If you want more MLB betting picks and predictions for Friday, Aug. 16, check out this market-based MLB betting model pick from the OddsShopper tools.
Ryne Nelson has a strikeout prop of over/under 5.5. The Diamondbacks right-hander will square off against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Despite Nelson racking up 25 strikeouts in his last three games, I understand why this wager is appealing. His 4.51 ERA and his massive home and road splits are concerning. His FIP at home is 2.91, but it skyrockets to 4.32 away from Chase Field.
He could easily stay under this mark due to struggling and potentially getting pulled early. However, the main reason I believe he will is his inability to fool hitters. Nelson’s contact rate is very high at 84%, and his swinging-strike rate is alarmingly low at 8.2%.
Furthermore, our tools identify this as a positive expected value (+EV) bet. The -113 price that FanDuel is offering assigns this wager an OS rating of 11, with a 6.2% EV mark. The true odds are listed at -129, which means we are getting around 16 points of value.
For the best price currently available, check out our Ryne Nelson live odds page!
