The MLB All-Star break is over, and we’re back to find the best NRFI bets today for Friday, July 19. There are a few good-looking spots for no run first inning picks today, but I like a certain game with a -120 line that features two pitchers who are a combined 29-6 on NRFI bets this season.
To date, we’re 79-53 on our NRFI bets, +13.36 units and on a 16-4 run! So it feels only right to team up with one of our Gambling Twitter friends to attempt the NRFI Ladder Challenge.
So if you want to tag along with Adam Kaufman and I, and tail the NRFI bet ladder challenge, follow me on Twitter @nd_joyce.
NRFI Bets Today: Best No Run First Inning Picks & Predictions
Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers | NRFI Bets Today
If you can remember ALL THE WAY BACK to the beginning of the season, we opened up the year with Corbin Burnes as one of our NRFI pitchers, so it’s only fitting we open up the second half with him on the mound for us again.
This Orioles-Rangers NRFI line is sitting at -120 on bet365, which feels like a little too much value considering who we’re getting as starters tonight.
Burnes is 14-5 on NRFI bets this season and has cashed 13 straight! The man has been absolutely rollin’. The Rangers have Nathan Eovaldi, who is 12-4 on no run first inning picks this season, so he’s been great as well.
However, Eovaldi will have a tougher task ahead with this Orioles offense, but he’s been dialed in over his last three starts — three earned runs in 21 innings and 18 strikeouts along the way.
The O’s are likely to stack the top of the order with lefties Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander and Ryan O’Hearn, but Eovaldi has been mitigating lefty bats well this season, so I’m not concerned about the platoon split.
As for Burnes, there isn’t a ton of analysis needed for a guy whose Baseball Savant Statcast page basically looks like a murder scene with all that red. He’s near the top of the ranks in every meaningful stat category and has been phenomenal.
This isn’t the same Rangers offense we’re used to seeing. In fact, it ranks 23rd in terms of wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season, which is below teams like the Tigers, Rays and Mariners.
We’re coming back and putting our 16-4 run on the line against a good Baltimore offense, but after a long break, the bats could be slow going here. With the -120 on this NRFI bet today, we can comfortably take this.
Best NRFI Bets Today: Orioles-Rangers NRFI (-120 at bet365)
And if you wanted to pair another MLB bet today with this Rangers-Orioles NRFI, you can look within the same game, thanks to this MLB pick from our OddsShopper market-based MLB betting model pick that is showing up as one of the best +EV bets on the entire slate.
The Texas Rangers are sitting as +1.5 run line underdogs against the Baltimore Orioles tonight at -120 odds on BetMGM.
As of right now, this is the No. 3-rated positive expected value (+EV) bet in the OddsShopper model, sitting with a 4.9% EV rating.
One of the main reasons why it’s popping as such a great bet is we’re getting a half run compared to some books like DraftKings and Unibet; and we’re getting over 30 points of value on the same +1.5 line on books like FanDuel and bet365.
The expected win rate on this bet is creeping up near the 60% mark, which you absolutely love to see, so hopping on the -120 value is imperative before it dries up.
And if you want to check out the OddsShopper betting tools now, make sure you use code NATHAN for an instant 20% off bonus when you sign up now.
