After winning our 14th no run first inning bet in 17 days, it didn’t take long to find the best NRFI bet today for Friday, July 5 — and it’s going to be somewhat a scene-of-the-crime pick.
The last NRFI bet we lost was on a SUPER SUS first-inning Isaac Paredes homer that didn’t look like it quite made it around the foul pole … but somehow the Mariners didn’t get the opportunity to challenge?
Either way, Luis Castillo is on the mound for the Mariners again, and he DEFINITELY owes us some money in the no run first inning bet department — after all, that was the day RIGHT BEFORE MY BIRTHDAY!
Now, let’s talk about why heading back to Seattle is the best chance for a NRFI bet today …
NRFI Bets Today: Best No Run First Inning Picks & Predictions
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners | NRFI Bets Today
If you take a look at the most recent first-inning performances of both starting pitchers in this matchups tonight, it would make a NRFI bettor sick to their stomach.
Kevin Gausman served up a moonshot to Aaron Judge, and Luis Castillo lost his FIFTH STRAIGHT no run first inning chance against by allowing a first-inning run to the Twins.
So, how can we back this NRFI bet today with Castillo arguably being the WOAT NRFI pitcher right now?
Well, because he gets to face one of the worst first-inning offenses in all of baseball this season in the Blue Jays — 26th overall in first-inning run percentage. And, for the cherry on top of it all, they’re coming to a stadium in T-Mobile Park that is the worst for offense, according to Baseball Savant’s Park Factor Ratings — which we discussed in-depth in yesterday’s article.
This stark drop-off seems highly unlikely that it’s one of vastly diminished skill over the course of one season after Castillo was so dominant last year (3.34 ERA, 219 Ks in 197 innings). This feels like a bit more of bad luck.
Yes, I will admit, the 11-7 record on NRFI bets this season isn’t the best, he should be able to handle the Blue Jays and their league-average offense against right-handed pitching — especially at home.
As for Gausman, we’re looking at a guy who is still carrying a 30.7% chase rate, so he’s getting guys to go outside of the zone on his pitches. And if there’s one team in baseball that likes to expand the zone, it’s DEFINITELY the Seattle Mariners.
Against righties this season, they’re carrying a 28.7% strikeout rate and a .218 batting average. Just like it was for Burnes on this NRFI bet yesterday, we could see Gausman rack up some Ks early with the swing-and-miss tendencies of this Mariners lineup.
We’re putting our 14-3 run on the line tonight, but I’ve got faith in these pitchers to come through for us and cash this NRFI bet today.
Best NRFI Bets Today: Blue Jays-Mariners NRFI (-135 at DraftKings)
If you’re looking for MLB bets today outside of this Blue Jays-Mariners NRFI, this OddsShopper market-based MLB betting model pick below is a +EV that is popping for plus-money today.
Pittsburgh Pirates rookie sensation Paul Skenes takes on the New York Mets tonight at PNC Park, and his over/under strikeouts prop is 7.5.
There aren’t many bettors who will want to fade a Skenes strikeout prop, but with the odds coming at +118 on FanDuel, our OddsShopper model is showing this as one of the best +EV bets on the board today.
You can see in our OddsShopper line shopping tool, Pinnacle Sportsbook — widely regarded as the sharpest sportsbook in the world — has the under 7.5 strikeouts priced at -103, so we’re getting 21 points of value at FanDuel on this bet.
Our OddsShopper model shows a 5.6% positive expected value (+EV) on this bet, and we don’t even have to win this bet more than 50% of the time to break even because of the price we’re getting.
The Mets aren’t a strikeout heavy team against righties either — just 20.9%, which puts them in the Top 10 in baseball.
And, on top of that, do you really want to mess with the power of Grimace?
