You don’t have to look far to find the best NRFI bet today for Friday, June 28. The sportsbooks made it easy for us today, giving us the gift of ultra -110 value for this no run first inning pick between two teams that have been notorious strugglers in the first inning. We’ve won 10 of our last 13 NRFI bets, so we’ve been ABSOLUTELY COOKING. Let’s stay hot. And if you want to keep riding the heater, be sure to join my Discord where I drop all of my betting picks every day — and get 20% off when you use code NATHAN.
Now let’s talk about the best NRFI bet for Friday …
NRFI Bets Today: Best No Run First Inning Picks & Predictions
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays | NRFI Bets Today
If you’ve been tailing these no run first inning picks of late, you’ve not only had a 77% winning percentage over your last 13 days, but you’ve noticed we’ve been honing in HARD on the Nationals and Rays.
The process isn’t broken, so we’re not fixing it.
FanDuel gave us a GREAT value line of -110 odds today on this Nationals-Rays NRFI bet today, so there’s no way we can turn this down.
Zach Eflin enters Friday’s game with a 9-5 record on no run first inning bets this season and is definitely in need of a bounce-back performance — he’s given up a YRFI in back-to-back games.
And there’s no better slump-buster for a pitcher in need of a NRFI win than the Washington Nationals, who have been the absolute stone-worst team in the first inning in all of baseball.
The Nats rank 30th in baseball, scoring in 13.75% of their first innings, which is below the Blue Jays, who put up a historic run of consecutive games without a run in the first inning this season — I lost count after like 23 or 24.
This is a prime spot for Eflin to get back on track.
And Eflin’s under-the-hood stats show he’s been a tad unlucky. His expected ERA is almost a full run lower than his actual ERA, and his 1.8% walk rate is the BEST IN BASEBALL. So he isn’t allowing guys on freely. He’ll make these Nats hitters earn it, and they haven’t proven they can do that all season.
So who do we have going for us in the bottom half of the first to get the final three outs? It’s Nationals rookie left-hander Mitchell Parker.
Parker is coming off a YRFI in his last outing, but that was his first time pitching in Colorado, so I’m almost willing to completely write that off.
Overall, he’s 9-4 on NRFI bets this season, so he’s been a really profitable pitcher to back in the first inning this season.
And when we take a look at how the Rays have performed against left-handed pitchers this season, we can see it’s been … tough sledding to say the least in terms of the strikeout rate. Ranking worse than the White Sox and A’s is NEVER a good thing.
Now, Parker isn’t a Randy Johnson in his prime kind of strikeout artist, but he has shown the ability to carve up a team that’s willing to expand the zone and give him the swing-and-miss. He has games of 8, 6 and 7 strikeouts this season — and two of those games came against the Braves and Twins, so not total slouches of offenses.
Parker has a 35% whiff rate on his splitter this season, and it’s been a devastating pitch against right-handed batters, which the Rays are almost assuredly to stack the lineup with tonight for a platoon advantage.
I would imagine we’re going to see the Nats lefty rely heavily on his splitter and curveball tonight, and dial back on the fastball, as the Rays hitters have proven they’re all capable hitters against the four-seamer.
Let’s hope that splitter is splitting, and we’ll cash this NRFI bet today with relative ease.
Best NRFI Bets Today: Nationals-Rays NRFI (-110 at FanDuel)
In addition to the NRFI bet for Nationals-Rays, check out our market-based MLB betting model pick below for another +EV play on Friday!
Logan Gilbert under 6.5 strikeouts is -135 on BetMGM, well below the -167 odds from sharp book Pinnacle and the -144 True Odds as determined by our model. That gives this bet positive expected value (+EV).
Our model calculates the breakeven point on all of our bets by taking odds from across the industry and adjusting for hold, sharpness of the book, and other factors. We call those breakeven points “True Odds.”
Our simulations show that bets like this that beat the True Odds are profitable long-term — though it will be long-term profit, so don’t be discouraged by short-term losses or overly encouraged by small-sample wins.
Results from strikeout bets like this Gilbert one (which you can find on our EV Results page) that have an OS rating of 2 or better 12 hours before game start are 100-70 on the year and have a 13.1% ROI.
