It’s Paul Skenes Day, which means there is only one place we’re going for our no run first inning pick today. Yes, the best NRFI bet for today, Monday, July 29, is coming to you from the Pirates-Astros game despite it featuring something called a Jake Bloss as the starting pitcher for Houston.
NRFI Bets Today: Best No Run First Inning Picks & Predictions
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros | NRFI Bets Today
I’ve bet the no run first inning on four Paul Skenes starts in 2024, and he’s cashed me out in three of them. We’re looking to make that an 80% hit rate tonight.
The Mustached Monster is 9-3 on NRFI bets this season for the Pirates and has cashed four consecutive no run first inning opportunities dating back to June 23.
This will be his first time facing Houston, but we’re confident running out arguably the best pitcher in the National League right now. He’s dominant in every facet of the game and has tons of swing-and-miss with his blow-you-away stuff. All of that plays PERFECTLY for NRFI bets.
On the other hand, it might be an early sweat for us in the top of the first with whatever create-a-player the Astros are running out as their starter today in Jake Bloss.
This 23-year-old right-hander is 1-2 on NRFIs in his three starts this season, so it definitely could be better.
But we’re a believer in the larger sample, which tells us that Pirates haven’t been a great first inning scoring team this season. Pittsburgh currently ranks 27th in baseball in first inning scoring percentage, which is just ahead of the White Sox and Nationals.
So while we might have to pace around and drop a few expletives during the top of the first to get through it, we should have a breeze in the bottom half with Skenes bringing us home.
I like the -125 value we’re getting on this NRFI bet today at BetMGM as well.
Best NRFI Bets Today: Pirates-Astros NRFI (-125, BetMGM)
If you want more MLB betting action, this market-based MLB betting model pick from our OddsShopper tools is one to look at, as it’s currently the No. 1-ranked bet in our expert tools right now.
Masataka Yoshida gets a difficult matchup against Seattle Mariners starter Logan Gilbert tonight and has an over/under total bases prop of 1.5.
According to our expert OddsShopper betting tools, we’re looking to be the UNDER here tonight, and we should be doing so with pretty good confidence.
It’s currently coming in as the No. 1 positive expected value (+EV) bet and has a 3.5% EV rating.
Not only that, but it’s got an expected win rate of 64%, which is very high. We’re getting 15 points of value compared to what the true odds are (-175), so we’re basically stealing from the sportsbooks.
All that said, it’s a great bet to fire up to start your week off with some profit.
