The Monday, June 10, NRFI slate isn’t the best NRFI bet day of all time, I won’t even lie to you. Some days, the pitching matchups will be hot garbage, and some days the books will have the no run first inning picks priced so tight there’s no way we can reasonably get value on them. So how do we navigate a day where the NRFI bets don’t look great?
We pivot and take the YRFI (yes run first inning) that comes in at +100 value. So we’ll take a break from the NRFI bets today and fire up a YRFI pick for Monday. Let’s root for some fun.
NRFI Bets Today: Best No Run First Inning Picks & Predictions
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewers | NRFI Bets Today
For YRFI bettors, there’s no greater sight to see than Colin Rea on the mound, who is just an absolute walking dumpster fire of a pitcher.
Rea has been bounced in and out of the rotation for poor performance this season and has only reclaimed his spot due to injuries … and we’re 100% here for it.
In his 11 starts this season, Rea has only gotten the NRFI in four of them, so he has allowed runs in the first inning on six different occasions, including each of his last THREE times out.
The top of the Blue Jays order is likely to look something like: Davis Schneider, Spencer Horwitz, Vladimir Guerrero Jr and Bo Bichette. Save for Horwitz (because we have no data on him), all of these guys have positive run values on at least two of Rea’s three most used pitches.
And while the Jays offense had been mired in a historic first inning scoring slump, Vladdy has gotten HOT in June. He’s rocking a .324/.378/.559 slash line with a pair of homers and doubles and 5 RBIs.
He’s hitting over 50 points better against righties as well this season (.302), and he has a great shot to drive in a run — if not hit a home run — in the first inning for us.
But if the Jays can’t get to the gas can that is Rea in the top of the first, we have a top-6 offense in baseball coming to bat in the bottom half for us in the Milwaukee Brewers — and even better, a top-3 offense against right-handed pitching.
What I love about the Brewers offense is that it can score in so many different ways: Stringing hits together, manufacturing runs by stealing bases, hitting the home run. It really can get offense generated in a lot of different ways, which is a big plus when looking for a YRFI.
Jose Berrios is 9-4 on NRFIs this season, so he’s been strong in the first inning for the most part. However, if we take a deeper look into the four NRFIs he LOST, all four came ON THE ROAD. And this start is in Milwaukee …
The Brewers rank third in wRC+ against righties this season, just behind the Yankees and Padres and right ahead the Dodgers.
The top 3 hitters in the Brewers order, Brice Turang, William Contreras and Christian Yelich, all crush Berrios’ favorite pitch to throw — the sinker.
With the myriad ways the Brewers can find ways to score, and especially with the Blue Jays having a slower catcher in Danny Jansen behind the plate, there could be ample opportunity for them to get the running game cooking.
This is screaming YRFI to me.
Let’s get some plus-money value down on this one. We skip the NRFI bet today, fire up the YRFI and come back ready to fire some no run first inning picks tomorrow.
Best NRFI Bets Today: Blue Jays-Brewers YRFI (+100 at BetMGM)
