Yesterday was an unsatisfactory effort for the no run first inning bets with an 8-7 result. Today’s slate is looking bare in terms of NRFI opportunities, but there is one matchup that I believe is worth considering. Let’s get into the best no run first inning bet for Thursday, Aug. 15.
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NRFI BETS TODAY: Best No Run First Inning Picks & Predictions
Athletics-Mets | NRFI Bets Today
Yesterday’s matchup between these teams was one of the eight games that had a NRFI, and I expect the same today. Citi Field is not known as a hitter’s park, and with the wind slightly blowing in, that reputation may hold true.
Mitch Spence will take the mound for Oakland with a 4.33 ERA and a 4.21 FIP. Despite those alarming stats, his projections imply that his results should be better, with a 3.76 expected ERA and a 4.12 expected FIP. The right-hander generates ground balls at a high rate and limits the launch angle of his opponents’ batted balls. This is reflected in his strong NRFI record of 11-4 (73%). Although the betting market seems to be fading Spence for the majority of this game, we’re only depending on him to excel short-term.
On the other hand, Jose Quintana presents some concern. His numbers haven’t really improved throughout the year, and his projections are higher than his current 4.10 ERA. With that being said, there may be some hope for this lefty, as he produces ground balls at a rate over 45% and performs better at home (3.38 ERA) compared to the road (4.81 ERA). His NRFI record is 15-8 (65%) this season. The Athletics have hit significantly better at home this year, so let’s hope that trend continues today.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Athletics/Mets NRFI (-110, Caesars Sportsbook)
If you want more MLB betting picks and predictions for Thursday, August 15, check out this market-based MLB betting model pick from the OddsShopper tools.
Ryan O’Hearn has a total bases prop of over/under 1.5. The Orioles first baseman will be facing Nick Pivetta of the Boston Red Sox.
Pivetta has shown much improvement over the course of this season. Although his 4.44 ERA and 4.04 FIP might suggest otherwise, his expected ERA (3.55) and expected FIP (3.37) are much better.
In his career, O’Hearn is 2-6 (.333 batting average), with one single and a home run versus Pivetta.
Our tools identify this a positive expected value (+EV) bet. The -165 price that BetMGM is offering assigns this wager an 8 OS rating with a 4.4% EV mark, while the true odds are -185.
So we’re getting at least 20 points of value in comparison to the rest of the market.
For the best price currently available, check out our Ryan O’Hearn live odds page!
