We were ALL OVER the best no run first inning bets the last two days, but we’ve failed to come up with wins. Still, there’s no doubt we are dialed in on the absolute best NRFI bet for today, Thursday, July 25 … and we’re ABSOLUTELY CASHING IT!
But seriously, how painful was watching that Tigers-Guardians game easily go under the projected total of seven runs — WHERE THEY ONLY SCORED THREE FREAKING RUNS TOTAL — and we somehow still lost our no run first inning pick? I mean, how unlucky can we get with these NRFIs?
To make up for the last two losses, we’re firing up the NRFI Ladder Challenge again, and we’re kicking off Day 1 with today’s best NRFI bet. So lock in with me, and let’s break down today’s no run first inning bet …
NRFI Bets Today: Best No Run First Inning Picks & Predictions
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays | NRFI Bets Today
This Rays-Blue Jays pick stands out as the best NRFI bet today for a couple of reasons:
- Taj Bradley is 11-2 on NRFI bets in 2024
- Chris Bassitt is 16-4 on NRFI bets in 2024
- Blue Jays are the fourth-worst first inning scoring team in baseball
- Rays are a bottom-10 offense in wRC+ against right-handed pitching this year
We’re getting this Rays-Jays game with a total of only 8.0 runs, which I’m assuming will probably drop to 7.5 or 7.0 by first pitch. So we’re not looking at a ton of runs based on the two offenses at play here.
On top that, we’re getting our pitchers in Rogers Centre, which is a nice park in terms of helping pitchers out. It currently ranks 22nd in Baseball Savant’s Park Factor this year, having only a 99 park factor rating, which is below major league average in terms of runs created. So that means it’s allowing fewer runs than most other parks on average and has helped pitchers more than hitters.
The real sweat will likely come in the top of the first with Bassitt on the mound. He’s not going to blow you away with wildly aggressive stuff, but the Rays do have a strikeout rate that is approaching 24% against right-handed pitching. So he could get an extra whiff or two, but we’re likely going to know if this thing is cashing pretty quick.
I trust Bradley, who has been dynamite in his last eight starts, to get it done for us in the bottom half of the first.
This is, no doubt, the best NRFI bet on the entire board today. It’s going to be popular, so expect to see a ton of people riding this one with us; let’s just hope the chalk donkeys don’t jinx us.
Let’s climb the ladder.
Best NRFI Bets Today: Rays-Blue Jays NRFI (-120, FanDuel)
Looking for more MLB bets, picks and predictions for today? Check out this market-based MLB betting model pick from our OddsShopper tools that comes from this same Rays-Blue Jays game for Thursday, July 25.
Jays outfielder George Springer is coming in with an under 1.5 total bases prop tonight against Taj Bradley and the Rays for -142 odds.
You’re going to want to use the OddsShopper line-shopping tools to find the best odds because this one is all over the place. Currently, if you use the OddsShopper tools, you can easily see that Caesars Sportsbook has the best odds at -142, where other books like BetRivers and Unibet have it juiced as high as -177.
The positive expected value (+EV) for this bet is coming in at 2% in our model as of 8:45 a.m. ET, which might seem like a small edge, but we’re willing to take every edge against the books we can get.
With an expected win rate of 60% and a tough matchup against Bradley, this definitely feels like an MLB player prop we can take advantage of.
