Meet me in St. Louis for the best NRFI bet today, where we’re getting -113 value on this Rays-Cardinals no run first inning pick for Tuesday, Aug. 6. It’s a much better matchup than the shenanigan matchup we got yesterday when the White Sox rugged us by starting Ky Bush … what a joke. Let’s dive into why this is my favorite no run first inning bet for Tuesday.
NRFI Bets Today: Best No Run First Inning Picks & Predictions
Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinals | NRFI Bets Today
It’s been brutal out in these NRFI streets of late. Between all the first inning homers and teams rugging us by scratching pitchers immediately after we lock in plays, it seems like all the no run first inning bets have been getting absolutely COOKED of late.
However, that all changes TONIGHT. The NRFI Bet Revenge Tour starts in earnest today with Rays-Cardinals.
Sonny Gray gets the nod for the Cards and brings his 16-4 NRFI record into tonight’s matchup against a Rays team that now looks a lot less dangerous than it did before the trade deadline.
Losing Randy Arozarena is always nice when going for the no run first inning bet, and this Tampa Bay team still strikes out nearly 25% of the time against righties. Gray ranks in the 92nd percentile in strikeout rate this season at 30.8% — obscene.
The reason we got such good value on this early was because Jeffery Springs is coming off injury, so the books were unsure how to price this after only making one start so far this season.
However, Springs did YRFI in that start against the Marlins when he gave up a first inning homer.
The Cardinals have a lineup that is chock full of left-handed bats and have struggled against southpaws to the tune of an 81 wRC+ in 2024.
This game is projected for only 7.5 total runs, so we’re getting a nice low total, which we love when targeting a NRFI bet. It’s a great day for a rebound; now let’s get back on the board.
Best NRFI Bets Today: Rays-Cardinals NRFI (-113, FanDuel)
On a massive Tuesday MLB betting slate, check out this market-based MLB betting model pick from the OddsShopper tools if you want more baseball betting picks and predictions today.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s total bases prop is at 1.5 today, with the under getting odds of -130 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
In a matchup against Grayson Rodriguez, the OddsShopper tools are finding some positive expected value (+EV) on the UNDER.
With a grade of 4 in the OS Rating system, this is a pretty strong bet today.
The true odds come in at -142, which gives us a 3.7% EV edge here, and we’re looking at an expected win rate of 59%.
Pinnacle Sportsbook has Guerrero’s line listed below the true odds at -143, so if we trust the “sharp books,” we can see DraftKings is giving us some good value here that we need to jump on
Find the inefficiencies in the market and pounce on them: That’s how you make money in the long run, friends.
