The best NRFI bets today for Tuesday, July 2, for most people, are going to come from the Tigers-Twins and Orioles-Mariners games. But I don’t see the value in targeting those games for no run first inning picks when we have a game featuring two PUTRID offenses that pays just as well. It’s been an INCREDIBLE RUN for us on finding the best NRFI bets lately, winning 11 of our last 14 picks — so we’ve been on absolute fire with not only finding value, but finding WINNERS.
As always, my Discord members get all of my picks first — generally 90 minutes to two hours before they’re released anywhere else. So if you’re interested in joining the Discord and getting these picks exclusively before everyone else, check it out. And use code NATHAN for 20% off.
But let’s see how we did over the weekend quick before we get into today’s best NRFI bet.
We absolutely COOKED on Sunday, cashing five of the six bets that we put out. And even better, it was capped off by a +575 Isaac Paredes home run bet that was just the cherry on top of the sundae — sorry, bad Sunday/sundae pun.
Either way, we SMASHED and CASHED, and we’re ready to do it all over again today.
NRFI Bets Today: Best No Run First Inning Picks & Predictions
Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland Athletics | NRFI Bets Today
When betting on no run first inning picks, many people flock to pitching matchups first, which isn’t a bad strategy. But there’s something to be said for targeting bad offenses, and that is what we’re doing with this NRFI bet today.
The Angels and Athletics are bottom-10 teams in baseball in first inning scoring this season as well as wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
Oakland sends Mitch Spence to the mound tonight, who is 6-2 on NRFI bets this season and has actually cashed SIX STRAIGHT no run first innings — including his last start against the Angels.
Spence is carrying a 4.35 ERA and 1.24 WHIP through his first eight starts in 2024, but if we look at the expected numbers, they do look better. His xERA is over a half run better at 3.79, so he’s been a bit unlucky thus far, according to the Statcast data. And he’s getting to start at home tonight in the Oakland Coliseum — a great venue to minimize offense and can be extremely forgiving for pitchers. We LOVE that.
The Angels are getting back one of my absolute favorite pitchers this season in Jose Soriano, who is 9-3 on no run first inning chances this season. He’s coming back off an injury that has kept him out since June 12, so I doubt many people will back him in this first start back after being on the IL.
Obviously, Soriano has great stuff with his 100 mph fastball/sinker combo and 95 to 97 mph slider. The A’s love to strike out, so we could be in store for some quick K’s in the first, which would be ideal in cashing this NRFI bet today.
Overall, this will be an under-the-radar NRFI bet today that many people won’t be thinking about, and I like the value we’re getting here.
Plus, with Soriano returning from injury and length being a possible question mark in this start, there’s another bet that our OddsShopper +EV model really likes. Keep reading to find out what it is.
Best NRFI Bets Today: Angels-Athletics NRFI (-125 at Caesars)
In addition to the NRFI bet for Angels-A’s, check out our market-based MLB betting model pick below for another +EV play today!
Jose Soriano under 5.5 total strikeouts for -117 odds on Caesars is crushing the -151 odds given on Pinnacle Sportsbook — largely known as the sharpest sportsbook in the world.
With a discrepancy like that, we’re getting massive positive expected value (+EV) on this bet.
Our model calculates the breakeven point on all of our bets by taking odds from across the industry and adjusting for hold, sharpness of the book, and other factors. We call those breakeven points “True Odds.”
Our model shows that the true odds of this bet should be -132, which is giving us 15 points of value, and we should have an expected win rate of 57% on this bet.
This prop bet grades out with a 5.6% EV rating, and our proprietary OddsShopper Rating system gives this bet a 10, which is incredibly high on the scale. Finding edges like these will help make us more profitable bettors in the long run.
