When I was looking for the best NRFI bet today for Wednesday, June 26, I was SOOO tempted to go back to Mariners-Rays … but that sketchy home run call in the first inning of last night’s game left a sour taste in my mouth. Not only that, but the line on that no run first inning pick today had moved to -130, and I felt like we could find better value somewhere else on the board. Well, I found a -120 NRFI bet today, and we can confidently go to this game that’s slated for this afternoon. Let’s break it down.
NRFI Bets Today: Best No Run First Inning Picks & Predictions
Washington Nationals vs. San Diego Padres | NRFI Bets Today
The NRFI bet of the day for us today is coming out of the bay with a pair of pitchers who can give us the shakies, but the recipe looks to be there today for a blanked first inning.
We can see the Washington Nationals are the worst team in baseball when it comes to scoring runs in the first inning this season — tied with the Toronto Blue Jays.
The Nats were one of the best first inning scoring teams in the game last year but this season have struggled to put up offense. And it’s been an absolute STRUGGLE for them on the road, where they’ve scored in just 11.63% of their first inning opportunities.
Dylan Cease is on the mound for the Padres, who is 9-7 on NRFI bets this season and just cashed his last no run first inning opportunity against a much tougher offense in the Milwaukee Brewers.
Against right-handed pitching this season, Washington ranks in the bottom 12 of all teams in baseball with a 96 wRC+ and is carrying just a .240 batting average as a team.
Cease has shown struggles at times throughout the season, but the Statcast data still really likes what he’s doing. The expected batting average and ERA look good (.220, 3.60), and the whiff rates and strikeout rates he carries this season are in the 91st and 93rd percentile, respectively. He should be able to handle this Nats offense.
Now, we’re flipping the script here a bit with a guy we don’t have an absolute metric ton of data on in DJ Herz. But the Washington Nationals prospect hasn’t been TOTALLY AWFUL despite his 4.50 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.
Herz is 4-0 on NRFI bets to start his Major League career, and those include a start against the Braves and a start AT Colorado. So there are a couple of pretty tough NRFIs to capture in that quartet.
If you take a look at his Statcast data chart in the small sample of four starts we’ve seen from him so far, the whiff numbers and strikeout rate are impeccable.
Those types of rates are going to be in the elite territory, and when you pair it with a walk rate that’s sitting right around 6%, it’s looking like he might be a pretty decent option.
But the expected ERA is 3.09, which is 1.5 runs different than his actual 4.50 ERA, so the projected numbers are saying he’s getting a tad unlucky.
The Padres offense is solid, don’t get me wrong. But if we turn the dials a little bit to zoom in on how they perform against left-handed pitching, we can see they’re not nearly the same caliber of potency against southpaws. Especially without superstar Fernando Tatis Jr.
So with the -120 value on the table today, we can go to this game, especially with it having another one of the 7.5 projected run totals we love to see, and confidently put our money on the NRFI bet today.
Best NRFI Bets Today: Nationals-Padres NRFI (-120 at DraftKings)
