A NRFI bet on a Sunday? What, is it my birthday? You’re darn right it is — and we have a solid one to work with on top of a OddsShopper Premium model bet. If you want other picks like NRFIs and MLB best bets, head on over to Nathan’s Discord. Now let’s see that no run first inning pick.
NRFI Bets Today: Best No Run First Inning Picks & Predictions
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins | NRFI Bets Today
We’re not reinventing the wheel here just because it’s a Sunday. In fact, some faiths demand we think less than usual on this day — and fading the White Sox takes as little thinking as any stance in the sport.
Everyone knows the drill by now; the White Sox are one of the worst offensive teams ever — and thus one of the most offensive teams ever. And with the help of a glorious 19-game losing streak, Chicago has now surpassed the Nationals to become the most reliable NRFI offense in MLB.
Today they get Minnesota’s Simeon Woods Richardson, an above-average young starter whose numbers would look a whole lot better had he not given up six earned runs in 3.1 innings last time out. As is, his 3.76 FIP is more than respectable, and his 1.182 WHIP is better than what 2023 NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell put up last season.
As for the other side, White Sox starter Chris Flexen isn’t exactly a NRFI god, but he does have a solid 3.00 first inning ERA this year in 20 starts.
The Twins are also dead center of the pack in runs per first innings (0.50, 16th in MLB), and the last 10 games has them right around that 50% YRFI mark.
Basically, we are riding the coldest hands in the sport on one side and taking our chances with the 50/50 swing on the other. We can even get the NRFI at plus money on DraftKings (+100), and OddsShopper’s MLB betting model puts the no run first inning at a solid 3.9% positive edge for us.
Best NRFI Bet Today: White Sox-Twins NRFI (+100 at DraftKings)
The MLB world may be in love with him (and so am I in a real-baseball sense), but the market-based MLB betting model pick likes the Paul Skenes under today.
There are only a couple of +EV opportunities in the OddsShopper model right now, as the true odds for Skenes under 7.5 strikeouts is -131. The current odds of -122 at Caesars are the best out there, which beat the true odds (how we calculate breakeven points of bet profitability) comfortably. That said, several other books are also giving positive expected value (+EV) on this bet; anything longer than -131 gives you an edge, so BetMGM and DraftKings are also +EV — albeit less so at -130.
On Caesars, this prop has a 2.8% EV grade in the OddsShopper model, and the 57% expected win rate gets leads to a workable OS Rating of 3.
This year our strikeout bets are 551-391 when they have an OS Rating of 3 or better two hours before first pitch. As a result, they are offering a whopping 15.1% return on investment across all books! If you tailed all such bets this year, you would be profiting $21,332 in 2024.
That’s how OddsShopper’s market-based bets work; it is about long-term profitability, not short-term wins and losses, and over time these bets are most likely to boost your bankroll.
