Not going with the Nationals NRFI for a third day in a row worked out since the Mets managed to plate one, but unfortunately Martin Perez ended our perfect week thanks to three two-out hits in the bottom half. You know what that means: Back to the Nationals well for both a NRFI play and our OddsShopper Premium model bet. For more picks like NRFIs and other best bets, be sure to head to Nathan’s Discord, where he gives all of his picks every day — and get 20% off when you use code NATHAN.
Now on to that no run first inning pick.
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NRFI Bets Today: Best No Run First Inning Picks & Predictions
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets | NRFI Bets Today
Hey, if some books keep dragging their feet on juicing Nationals NRFIs enough, we’ll keep taking them. To be fair, today many books have moved the odds to the point where they aren’t good value — namely DraftKings and Caesars at a -130 and -140 — but BetRivers is still hanging in with a nice -110 for this early game.
The facts from earlier in the week have not changed: If the Nationals have a decent starter on the mound, their offense is bad enough to count on the NRFI. The Mets may have scored a run yesterday, but the Nats sure didn’t. And yesterday they had Patrick Corbin, the National League’s personal batting practice pitcher.
Today, however, they turn to their nominal ace (if not their de facto one) in MacKenzie Gore. His overall numbers aren’t quite as good as Jake Irvin‘s, especially after getting knocked around in two of his last three starts. That said, he is missing bats to the tune of 10.7 strikeouts per nine and a 27.0 strikeout rate, and he has also dropped his walks quite a bit to a league-average 8.2% mark.
Plus, burying the lede here a bit, he’s flipping 16-2 on NRFIs in 2024.
So the Mets may have decent offense in them, and Gore may give up hits as the game goes along, but in the first inning he is dynamite and a half.
New York is countering with its anti-Gore in David Peterson, whose run, hit and walk numbers are almost identical to Gore’s despite his inability to strike many guys out through seven starts this year. But remember: The Nationals are DFL in first inning runs and near the bottom in ISO, hard-hit rate and team OPS DESPITE striking out less than 70% of the league. They put the ball in play, just softly and right at fielders — right up Peterson’s alley.
Basically, Gore and the Nats are the NRFI gift that keeps on giving, so I’m a keep on taking.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Nationals-Mets NRFI (-110 at BetRivers)
There aren’t many worthwhile player props in this Nationals-Mets game outside of this lock of a NRFI, but we do have one good market-based MLB betting model pick below to give you another +EV play today!
Juan Yepez‘s RBI under is pretty juiced no matter the book, but there are still several +EV opportunities according to the OddsShopper model loves the other side. Given that EV age, however, it may not last super long, so be sure to get it in while you can.
The current odds of -175 at Hard Rock the best out there, but if you don’t have access to SuperBook, the more widely available Caesars is just a tick below at -184. Several other books are also giving positive expected value (+EV) on this bet; the -200 true odds mean anything -199 or below is going to give you an edge.
On Caesars, this prop has a 3.0% EV grade in the OddsShopper model, and the 67% expected win percentage gets us to an OS Rating of 3, which is solid.
This year our RBI bets are 213-95 when they have an OS Rating of 3 or better two hours before first pitch, giving them a full-season ROI of 9.4%!
