How about it, folks? The Nationals did us good again — and the Mets followed the script exactly. Jake Irvin blanked them in the first and then got tagged for four runs in the second. But we only care about Inning 1, and that’s back-to-back NRFI wins AND back-to-back hits with our OddsShopper Premium model bets for good measure. We’ll give the Nats a break today, though, and find ourselves a different NRFI bet today. For more picks like NRFIs and other best bets, be sure to head to Nathan’s Discord, where he gives all of his picks every day — and get 20% off when you use code NATHAN.
Let’s find ourselves a no run first inning pick with some value.
NRFI Bets Today: Best No Run First Inning Picks & Predictions
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers | NRFI Bets Today
Neither of these teams is quite Washington bad in the first inning, but both are at least within shouting distance of the bottom of the barrel. The Pirates and Brewers are averaging 0.36 and 0.37 runs per first inning, respectively, bottom-7 marks in MLB.
Milwaukee in particular has snuck its way down the pecking order of MLB offenses, ranking middle of the pack or worse in most stats over the last 30 days. Power numbers in particular have really fallen, as the Brewers rank in MLB’s bottom third in slugging and isolated power. Good walk numbers and a four-game lead in the NL Central have somewhat masked that, however.
Luckily, the Pirates are countering with Martin Perez, who walks batters at a below-average rate and keeps the ball on the ground at an above-average clip. Now, Perez is no Randy Johnson, sporting just a 17.2% strikeout mark and an average over .300. But he’s at least not issuing too many free passes, and that’s how the Brewers are manufacturing runs the last month.
Milwaukee counters with a better pitcher (at least in a small sample) with rookie Tobias Myers, who also keeps the walks down. Unlike Perez, Myers keeps the bases much clearer in general, sporting a solid 1.188 WHIP through his first 64 big league innings.
And for as mediocre as Milwaukee has been the last month, the Pirates have a full season of bum on their side — fourth-worst OPS for the season, fifth-worst OPS+ and a team on-base percentage below .300. We like Myers to have a relatively sweat-free first, and then Perez just has to keep the ball down against a Brewers top of the order that has name value and power potential — power potential that has not manifested itself much.
What we really enjoy here, though, is Caesars giving us -110 odds for a battle of two bottom-10 first inning offenses. We’ll grab that every time.
Best NRFI Bets Today: Pirates-Brewers NRFI (-110 at Caesars)
If you’re looking for another bet in the Pirates-Brewers game outside of the NRFI, be sure to check out our market-based MLB betting model pick below for another +EV play today!
We’re slightly hedging our confidence in Perez here. He can get through the first with a clean inning so long as he keeps the ball down, but Perez has been and will always be one to pitch to contact. So we’re going to play that side of his strikeout line.
The current odds of +122 at FanDuel are the best out there, and right now it is the only sportsbook that is offering positive expected value (+EV) on this bet; the +117 true odds mean anything +118 or longer is going to give you an edge.
On FanDuel, this prop has a 2.2% EV grade in the OddsShopper model, and the 46% expected win percentage, while smaller, gets us to an OS Rating of 1, meaning it’s bettable.
So if you’re looking for another bet to pair with our NRFI play above, this is one +EV bet that you can look to make with confidence, according to our OddsShopper Tools.
