The best NRFI bets today looks like it’s going to feature one of our ABSOLUTE FAVORITE guys — our King, in fact. But, we can’t gloss over the fact that we took the books to VALUE TOWN last night by cashing that Mets-Nationals NRFI pick. We got that at -115 and barely had to sweat.
That puts us on a nice 4-1 run on these NRFI bets, and we’re 62-44 overall this season, so we’re holding strong starting June. Let’s get into the top NRFI prop pick and prediction for Tuesday, June 4.
If you’re hungry for more, check out our MLB betting tools or our other MLB articles! Also, check out our guide to NRFI & YRFI betting.
NRFI Bets Today: Best No Run First Inning Picks & Predictions
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins | NRFI Bets Today
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When the King is on the mound, you can basically take your mortgage, pink slip or your first born child and basically bet that we’re going to be backing him on the NRFI line. Especially when the books aren’t juicing the line beyond -130.
This Rays-Marlins game has a no run first inning bet line that is only -125 on FanDuel, and that seems like pretty fair value considering Miami is a Bottom 7 offense in terms of YRFI percentage, and Jesus Luzardo is one of the best NRFI pitchers in the game.
Tampa Bay is a league-average team in terms of YRFI percentage (the amount of times they score in the first inning), but we’re always going to like our odds with King Luzardo on the mound.
Entering his last start, Luzardo was a perfect 8-0 on NRFIs, but gave up a squeaker of a homer in the first inning. So, he’s likely got revenge in his heart to get his record back on track to 9-1.
Against left-handed pitching this season, Tampa Bay has struck out the fourth-most in baseball at over a 25% clip, and has struggled to the tune of a .678 OPS (Bottom 10 in the league).
The one thing Luzardo does extremely well is get guys to swing and miss, so we should expect a few Ks from him in the first.
To shut the Marlins down in the bottom half, we have young righty Ryan Pepiot, who was one of the better prospects in baseball a few years back.
Like Luzardo, he’s quite good at getting the swing-and-miss, and ranks in the 85th and 82nd percentile in whiff rate and strikeout rate, respectively.
We not only love that, but we absolutely love the 0.95 WHIP and 2.97 xERA (expected ERA) that he’s rocking this season, which means he’s been pitching EXTREMELY well with some unlucky results to show for it.
Pepiot is 6-3 on his NRFI chances this season, and has cashed two straight NRFI bets for us. And against this Miami offense that carries just a 91 wRC+ against righties, I like Pepiot’s chances to cash his third straight no run first inning chance.
And for us? Well, I like our chances to cash OUR fifth NRFI bet in six days.
Best NRFI Bets Today: Rays-Marlins NRFI (-125 at FanDuel)
