Weather spots are the theme today, and those could ruin our NRFI/YRFI choices. Still, we have to take these early sweat opportunities when we have him, so we’re going to check out all the afternoon and evening action to find the best first inning bets. Let’s get into our two NRFI bets today for Thursday, April 11. If you’re hungry for more, check out our MLB betting tools or our other MLB articles! Also, check out our guide to NRFI & YRFI betting.
NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Best No & Yes Run First Inning Picks
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies | NRFI & YRFI Bets Today
The odds of this game happening are about 50-50. Forecasts project light rain and moderate wind around first pitch, but it is expected to pick up over the subsequent hours, so they might preemptively postpone this one if the radar starts to look worse. For now, we’ll proceed as if the game is going to happen.
This game’s 9.5 total is tied for the highest of the day, and though the over is plus money right now, OddsShopper is showing that side as having a slight EV edge on the under.
The top of the Phillies lineups is where we like this the most against a right-handed pitcher in Jared Jones. Jones is a 22-year-old rookie who has started his career out OK — particularly with 17 strikeouts in two starts. He has, however, also allowed a pair of home runs in 11.2 innings. Philadelphia’s top 3 of Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner and Bryce Harper is, shall we say, underperforming early on, but it is a formidable trio for a young starter.
Harper has a .949 career OPS against righties, Turner an .822 and Schwarber an .873, 82.3% of Schwarber’s career home runs have come off right-handed pitching.
Jones’ stuff looks nasty right now, but the home runs have been coming, and this is not the lineup for mistakes.
On the Pirates side, their lineup is not overly daunting and Ranger Suarez is a decent pitcher, but they are hovering around league average in most offensive metrics. If they’re neutral and Philadelphia is looking strong tonight, a first inning run seems like the move.
The odds are not over appealing for either side of this game — sharp book Pinnacle has the best odds for a YRFI at -106 — but Tipico at -112 is also passable, while more widespread books in DraftKings and ESPN BET have it at -125. We’re going to head to the book that is usually on top of this sort of thing and take the YRFI.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Pirates-Phillies YRFI (-106, Pinnacle)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
We went after Orioles-Red Sox for a YRFI yesterday and were let down, and today the pitching looks even stronger. The Orioles are sending out their young up-and-comer in Grayson Rodriguez; the Red Sox counter with the red-hot Garrett Whitlock.
Whitlock has been around a while but usually out of the bullpen. He’s in the rotation now due to injury, and he is taking full advantage — a miniscule 2.25 FIP, 12 total strikeouts and just one run in 9.1 innings. Now, the outings are staying short and the shoe could drop at any moment, but for now his stuff looks on point.
As for Rodriguez, early returns last year were not promising, as he got hurt in May and missed almost a month — sitting on a 7.35 ERA while he rested. He came back from his injury with a vengeance, posting a 2.41 ERA and nearly a strikeout per inning over the last two months of 2023. He was also good for a consistent six or seven strikeouts and kept the walks to a reasonable level.
2024 sees him picking up where he left off, only with more strikeouts — 11.7 per nine — and he is keeping baserunners to about one an inning. Both of these lineups have pop in them, particularly at the top of the order, but I like the pitching to hold them down through the first. BetRivers gives us the best NRFI odds this time at -113.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Orioles-Red Sox NRFI (-113, BetRivers)
