Ouch. That backhand slap from reality hurt. We took an 0-2 day on no run first inning bets on the chin yesterday. Can we say that we got a bit unlucky with the three combined runs given up by the four pitchers coming in the first inning? Sure. But that’s how the NRFI game be, and we know these streets can be dangerous at times. I like two no run first inning picks for Friday, April 26, and we’ve gotten pretty strong value on them considering the matchups.
** Editor’s Note: Jesus Luzardo was scratched AFTER this article was published. Please be advised that he is NOT starting in this game tonight against the Washington Nationals. Anthony Maldonado will start in his place. **
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NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Best No & Yes Run First Inning Picks
Chicago Cubs vs. Boston Red Sox | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
We’re looking at a couple of guys pitching in this matchup who have ERAs that are pretty much nonexistent. It’s a Kutter Crawford (0.66 ERA) vs. Shota Imanaga (0.84 ERA) matchup in Boston.
Now, if you read me last year, you know the Red Sox were all over the banned list. They screwed us 12 ways to Sunday. Every possible way to ruin a NRFI or a YRFI bet for us last year, they found a way to do it.
I generally don’t like taking no run first inning bets in Fenway Park based on the wacky dimensions and some of the shenanigans it can bring, but I’m going to dip my toe in the Bean Town water tonight.
Crawford has, obviously, been dynamite. He’s been limiting hard contact and he’s been pounding the zone more with his pitches.
But the biggest revolution to his game in 2024 is the introduction of a sweeper that he’s throwing nearly 27% of the time. And it’s paying off with a 30.6% whiff rate. So batters are swinging … and missing.
What do we know about a few of those Cubs hitters atop the lineup? They know how to swing and miss. We’re looking at you Ian Happ and Michael Busch.
Imanaga is somewhat of a “new toy” to American baseball.
He’s 30 years old but is technically a rookie. However, what we’re seeing out of him is veteran stuff.
Check out the middle portion of his Statcast data from Baseball Savant here.
The chase rate and walk rate … just ridiculous. The chase rate especially stands out to me. Dudes are swinging at pitches out of the zone, which means those pitches are moving everywhere and he’s got some true deception.
And on top of that, he’s NOT WALKING GUYS.
And when we’re looking at betting a no run first inning, we’re not looking for guys to allow runners on via walks. Especially the ever-pesky Jarren Duran. The Red Sox have plenty of strikeouts in this lineup, though, as they lead baseball in that category (261).
With a pair of guys who have looked great so far, Statcast data backing it up and the game total sitting at just 8 runs, we’re firing the bullet on the no run first inning bet here for Cubs-Red Sox.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Cubs-Red Sox NRFI (-122, BetRivers)
** Editor’s Note: Jesus Luzardo was scratched AFTER this article was published. Please be advised that he is NOT starting in this game tonight against the Washington Nationals. Anthony Maldonado will start in his place. **
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
It had been a hot minute since we got some coin down on our NRFI King Jesus Luzardo. And we had big plans on it tonight, however, the fella got scratched and is likely headed to the IL with an elbow injury. So, we’re not going to get any no run first inning bet down on Luzardo tonight.
However, that doesn’t mean we’re straying away from the NRFI pick in this Nationals-Marlins game.
The Marlins are bringing up prospect Anthony Maldonado, who has been pretty strong throughout his minor league career — a 2.68 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 223 strikeouts in 164.2 career innings.
Granted, those are minor league numbers, so, we can’t exactly take those as gospel. But, the projected total for this game opened at 8.5 runs. And, after Luzardo was scratched, the total actually WENT DOWN. Yes, it went down a half run to 8.
So, we lose one of the best NRFI pitchers in the game, and the total drops? That seems … interesting, no?
Could it be me trying to talk myself into this because I’ve already made the bet? Possibly. There’s a chance of that. My advice to you is that if you’re not comfortable backing a rookie making his debut, don’t take this bet.
But, if you’ve already made this bet, there’s definitely been scratches that we’ve felt worse about. I’ll say that. And let’s talk about why.
The Nationals are averaging just 3.5 runs per game this season and (small-sample alert) rank 29th in baseball in first inning runs at 0.29 per game this season. They’re without Lane Thomas, who is on the IL now; and as good as leadoff man CJ Abrams is, he’s just a career .181 hitter against left-handed pitching.
The Marlins offense? Well, it’s not any better. They’re averaging 3.38 runs per game this season, and to show you how small samples can be wild early on, they currently rank 10th in first inning runs per game at 0.62 runs per first inning.
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So a few big first innings can really skew your season averages. Do they scare me as a first inning team? No. Do they scare me as an offensive team? No.
Trevor Williams has been a beneficiary of the newly introduced sweeper. He’s throwing it nearly 20% of the time this season, and it’s getting a swing and miss 33.3% of the time — pretty astounding.
From 2022 to 2023, Williams wasn’t producing many ground balls, just 36.2% and 39.5% in those respective years. However, in 2024, we’ve seen that number jump tremendously to 49.1%, which we can attribute much of the lowered fly ball rate, ERA and home run rate to.
His location and command have been excellent, living low in the zone and on the corners in 2024.
It’s things like this that we can see in Statcast data that let us know it’s not just some kind of random noise or getting results based on luck. These are results based on actual changes made in philosophy, and skills.
Whew, I definitely nerded out on you all, so apologies for that. All of that to say … we’re rolling with the no run first inning bet today, despite the late scratch of Luzardo. We’re trusting that a couple of middling-to-poor offenses continue their struggles.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Nationals-Marlins (-115, BetMGM)
