Some days, you just have to tip your cap and say, “you got me.” And we have to do that to the White Sox, as they spoiled our no run first inning bet by plating a run against the Guardians. I’m not mad about it because, well, the White Sox stink. If that’s how I’m losing my NRFI picks — especially at -115 value — then I’m more than happy with making the WOAT White Sox prove to me they’re capable of scoring a run in the first to beat me. But we have two more no run first inning picks and predictions today for Friday, May 10, so let’s get into these winners and look to extend our NRFI winning streak to 9-3 over this last stretch!
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NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Best No & Yes Run First Inning Picks
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
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Yes, we’re going back to the Twins well for a NRFI after they just took our lunch money two nights ago. Those back-to-back homers aren’t going to be enough to scare me off targeting this team again on a no run first inning bet.
Tonight we have Twins-Blue Jays in a game that is projected for only 7.5 runs in a park that has actually been worse for runs than many would think.
Rogers Centre is playing basically park factor-neutral, which is a far cry from how it once played, where it was generally 5 to 7 points above average for years. Its new design has kept runs down but somehow increased strikeouts — mostly due to its funky batter’s eye design.
But that’s nerd stuff. We’re here for NRFI talk.
Yusei Kikuchi is our huckleberry tonight on the Jays side, and he’s 6-1 on his no run first inning chances in 2024. The only NRFI he didn’t cash was against the Dodgers two starts ago. And I’m willing to give him a pass because that’s the Dodgers and they’re a different beast.
The Twins have a team strikeout rate of almost 24%, which plays right into the hands of Kikuchi, who is rocking a nearly 27% strikeout rate this season.
The Jays lefty is locked in as he has shown great velocity and has 23% whiff rates or better on all four of his pitches. He’s getting us our first three outs against these Minnesota hitters.
And we’re putting the ball in the hands of Joe Ryan in the bottom of the first inning. Ryan did let us down on a NRFI two starts ago, but I trust him here against the Jays.
Overall, Ryan is only 4-3 on no run first inning bets this season. So why do I like him against the Jays tonight?
The Blue Jays have struggled against right-handed pitching to this point, cobbling together only a .301 OBP, .652 OPS and a 90 wRC+. All of those are bottom-10 numbers in baseball this season.
If we take a look under the hood on Ryan, we’re seeing data that looks much better than the surface-level numbers. The ERA is 3.54, which is still pretty strong. However, he has an xERA of 2.54 (which ranks top 10% in the league), a 3.7% walk rate (top 7%) and a chase rate of 33.1% (85th percentile).
So in other words, the guy is ballin’. He’s just getting a bit unlucky here in 2024.
Let’s lock in this Twins-Blue Jays no run first inning pick with these two borderline aces on the mound tonight.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Twins-Blue Jays NRFI (-120 at DraftKings)
Oakland A’s vs. Seattle Mariners | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
The Mariners get back one of their shiny toys they really like tonight in Bryan Woo, and we’re going to break him out of the box immediately for a test run.
I’m generally not into trusting young starters in their first start back coming off injury, but there’s really no better initiation than going against the A’s in your first start back.
Woo was pretty solid in his rookie year in 2023, posting a 4.21 ERA and nearly 12 strikeouts per nine in 87.2 innings. He’s getting an Oakland team tonight that has a 25.1% strikeout rate, so he should be able to find some swings and misses in his return.
This might be a TAD risky with the youngster just coming off the IL, but they priced this in a range where it’s worth a shot.
A’s starter Paul Blackburn has been darn near perfect this season when it comes to NRFIs. The fella is 6-1 on his no run first inning chances and only failed to cash in on his start in Yankee Stadium — a tough place to pitch, and he was due to get roughed up at some point.
But he’s been a boss at navigating the early inning. And if there’s one thing we know about this Mariners team that I’ve beaten you over the head with time and time again … it’s that they lead all of baseball in strikeout rate — by almost 2 full percentage points.
And for a guy like Blackburn, who isn’t a HUGE strikeout guy, that makes a big difference. When you give him the extra ability to get swings and misses, you make him that much more effective. So you take a 19% strikeout rate guy and might turn him into a 25% strikeout rate guy on a given night, and that increases his value in working around possible danger.
At -120, we can’t pass up the no run first inning bet here. Let’s rock.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: A’s-Mariners NRFI (-120 at BetMGM)
