Back-to-back days of losing NRFI bets feels AWFUL, especially when we get beat by an Edward Olivares homer. I’m OK with the Aaron Judge nuke on Wednesday, but last night kind of ticked me off. Losing a no run first inning bet to Olivares and his 29 career homers in four years is tough. But the only way to rebound is to find two great NRFI bets today and rebound by taking a weekend trip to Cash City — aka win them both. Let’s do the darn thing.
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NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Best No & Yes Run First Inning Picks
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
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Whenever we’re in a little mini slump, there’s no greater sight for sore eyes than our NRFI King himself, Jesus Luzardo. If he’s on the slate, you can pretty much take it to the bank we’re firing up the no run first inning bet with him.
The Mets and Marlins play tonight in Miami with a game that has a projected total of just 7.5 runs — and that might even be a tad high.
We know Luzardo is on the mound for the Fish, but the Mets are sending their heralded pitching prospect Christian Scott to the bump to duel Miami’s ace. Despite being the more inexperienced pitcher, Scott and the Mets are -120 favorites.
However, throw the full-game lines out the window; we’re condensing this baby down to one inning.
And when it comes to the first inning, we know there’s no one better than Luzardo. He’s a perfect 6-0 on NRFIs this season despite his inflated 5.97 ERA.
He’s still getting plenty of swings and misses, and striking guys out, which is something we absolutely need from him when looking at these no run first inning picks.
We’re always trusting in our king.
Scott has made two major league starts — one against the Rays and one against the Braves. So he’s faced two quality opponents, no matter how bad you want to say the Rays are right now.
He sputtered in his first inning as a big leaguer against the Rays and couldn’t secure the NRFI. But I’m willing to overlook that because of nerves.
I’m more impressed by his second outing where he set the Braves down in order by striking out Ronald Acuna, getting Ozzie Albies to foul out and striking out Austin Riley.
The Marlins don’t possess anywhere near that type of threat, and the Statcast data in the accompanying graphic looks really strong through the limited sample we have on Scott so far.
So given the matchup here against the weakened Marlins lineup, we’re definitely going to ride these strong young starters on this NRFI bet today.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Mets-Marlins NRFI (-115 at bet365)
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
We will have just about a 21-minute layover in San Francisco before we depart for our final destination of Cash City.
This Rockies-Giants NRFI bet today looks like a good one, and we’re going to see the odds on this one creep down into the -140 or -145 range by first pitch, so we’re getting some value here.
Lefty Kyle Harrison starts for the Giants against a Rockies team that grades out like this against southpaws this season:
- wRC+: 77 (27th)
- Strikeout Percentage: 24.3% (22nd)
- On Base Percentage: .295 (22nd)
In other words, not exactly KILLING IT against lefties this season.
Harrison is 7-2 on NRFI chances in 2024 and has already cashed this bet against the Rockies once — IN COORS, which is much tougher than San Fran. This feels like a spot where we can trust the southpaw to get us a clean top half.
He’ll hand it over to Rockies starter Ryan Feltner in the bottom half, who has pitched way better than his surface-level numbers would indicate.
Feltner has an inflated 5.20 ERA, but the expected ERA is 3.23, so he’s pitched FAR BETTER than what the results have been — most likely due to the Coors Field effect.
He’s also been nearly a strikeout-per-inning guy, which is also a plus for securing NRFIs.
But when we look at the Baseball Savant Statcast data in the accompanying chart here, we can see Feltner doesn’t walk guys, and he doesn’t allow hard contact. Which are the other two ingredients we love in a NRFI recipe.
Throw in the fact that the Giants are incredibly beat up, and this lineup is in shambles without Jung Hoo Lee, Jorge Soler and Michael Conforto … it’s not great for them.
This has all the makings of a great no run first inning bet tonight, and we want to take advantage of this one before all the value is sucked out of it.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Rockies-Giants NRFI (-125 at bet365)
