We’ve been on a nice little run here on these no run first inning bets, going 9-3 on our last 12 NRFI picks. We had another 2-1 weekend, and if you missed those picks, the best way to get those is to get into the OddsShopper Discord. That’s where I give all these NRFI bets and more player props, game picks and bets at least 90 minutes before they’re published on the site or Twitter, so joining there has big benefits, plus you can sweat bets with the rest of our crew. Come check it out here and use promo code NATHAN for 20% off when you sign up.
I have one no-run first inning bets for you today, Monday, April 22. If you’re hungry for more, check out our MLB betting tools or our other MLB articles! Also, check out our guide to NRFI & YRFI betting.
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NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Best No & Yes Run First Inning Picks
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Kansas City Royals | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
I assume that, when you’re looking for no run first inning bets today, you’re going to see most people pushing the Tigers-Rays NRFI. It’ll be the most popular NRFI bet on the board, which I understand. But I can’t get down with a NRFI that’s juiced to, like, -150 or worse. So I’m going to one that on which we’re getting far too much value in Kansas City at -108 odds.
I’ve never really put a ton of trust in Brady Singer before, but he’s shown some things in Statcast data on Baseball Savant that have really impressed me.
It all centers around his sinker — namely, his 92nd percentile ground ball rate, which has really helped him lower his hard-hit rate. The improvement in the sinker has helped him up his ground ball rate almost 9 percentage points from a year ago, which we can definitely attribute most of his success to this season (1.54 ERA, 0.86 WHIP).
But even more impressive is that Singer has raised his swinging strike from 9.6% a year ago to 12% this year, so he’s getting more swings and misses, which we love to see.
Toronto is in the bottom 10 in baseball in runs scored per game this season at 3.91, so its offense hasn’t been lighting the world on fire.
Not only that, but as a team, the Jays have the third-lowest team exit velocity in all of baseball, so they’re not hitting many balls hard at all, which should help Singer immensely with that sinker of his.
And in the bottom half of the first, we’re getting a left-handed pitcher in Yusei Kikuchi, who has been pretty dominant in his own right this season.
When you pull up Kikuchi’s Baseball Savant page and check out his MLB Percentile Rankings, you can see that it’s basically bleeding out with all of that bright red.
He’s ranking INCREDIBLY well in all of the things you want to see a pitcher rank well in — outside of chase percentage, which you’re willing to be OK with based on all of the other metrics being borderline pornographic.
The exit velocity he’s given up this season — or lack thereof — has been downright impressive. Holding batters to 84.9 exit velo while the MLB average is 88.4 is wild, which shows you he’s disguising his pitches well, moving and having great deception.
With all of those things, the strikeout rate has jumped all the way up to 33% this season, which is likely unsustainable at that high of a number, but it’s possible he can keep it in the high 20s — 27 or 28 — if he continues this type of run.
The Royals lineup is much improved this season, so we should note that. However, Maikel Garcia has shown some struggles as of late, and Bobby Witt Jr. does have some swing-and-miss in his bat for as much power and speed as he possesses.
I don’t like the idea of Alejandro Kirk trying to throw Garcia or Witt out trying to steal, so we’re really hoping to keep those speedsters off the bases. If they get on, they’re likely to run, and that could cause trouble for this NRFI bet.
But I’m going to put some trust in these two arms and roll with some Statcast-backed improvements. Plus, you know I’m a sucker for value like this.
We ride with the Blue Jays-Royals no run first inning bet on this Monday night.
Let’s make it a 10-3 run on NRFI bets, friends.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Blue Jays-Royals NRFI (-108, BetRivers)
