A fresh week of no run first inning bets is ahead of us, and I’m ready to attack these NRFI picks today — or, should I say, NRFI AND YRFI picks today. Because, my friends, we’re not just hating today and betting the no run first inning. We’re going to be rooting for some fun and firing up a plus-money YRFI bet today. Not only is it great value, but it’s targeting two pitchers who have just wrecked us time and time again this season, so it’s going to be sweet, sweet revenge. Let’s get to the NRFI and YRFI picks for Monday, May 13.
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NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Best No & Yes Run First Inning Picks
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
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“No Big, I feel like Pac. I shoot the shot (brr, brr). I’m comin’ in hot!” … Just like Andy Mineo says. That’s what we’re doin’ today in this Pirates-Brewers game. We’re comin’ in hot, baby!
This is our plus-money revenge YRFI banger today.
We have two guys on the mound who are what I like to consider scam artists in Colin Rea and Mitch Keller. Or as I affectionately know them as, Colin Cray and Mitch Seller, because Rea drives you crazy and Keller just sells you whenever you bet the NRFI.
Well, today is the day we pulverize these putzes and get our money back, because the books mispriced this yes run first inning bet today in my opinion.
Rea’s under-the-hood numbers on Baseball Savant are more ice cold than the Freezing Cold Takes Twitter page.
Dude has an expected batting average against of .304 and expected slugging of .509. For reference, those are bottom 5% and bottom 6% of the league ranks, respectively. Or, in other words, not great, Bob.
Not to mention, he’s somehow managed a 3.29 ERA with an expected ERA of 2.5 runs higher (5.77), so he’s working with some type of voodoo magic to have not been blown up by now.
Rea’s biggest problem is that he’s not missing bats and can’t fool hitters with his low-90s fastballs and middling off-speed stuff. He’s in the 10th percentile rankings or worse on chase rate, whiff rate and strikeout rate.
And if the Pirates can get anyone on base, they might be inclined to run on either William Contreras or Gary Sanchez, who are two of the slower catchers at getting the ball down to second base. Like poker players, we love to be drawing to as many possible outs to hit the nuts, and this just adds another one for us.
Keller, on the other hand, is coming off a complete-game performance against the Angels in his last outing. The fella threw 109 pitches and, with the one-earned run performance, lowered his ERA from 5.18 to 4.41.
However, his xERA is still higher than his actual ERA even after this little gem against the Mike Trout-less Angels.
As you can see, there’s still a ton of blue circles on his Statcast data page — especially that 44.5 hard-hit rate, and the 20.6% whiff rate.
Not missing bats and having that high of a hard-hit rate is a combination that is asking for disaster, and it is likely coming here.
Milwaukee is No. 2 in wOBA (.344) and slugging percentage (.435) — behind only the Dodgers — and No. 3 in wRC+ (Dodgers and Yankees) this season against right-handed pitching.
In other words, they’ve straight-up MERKED righties this season. And if you want a small-sample alert, Keller’s career numbers against the active Brewers …
- .342 AVG (25-for-75)
- .415 OBP
- .603 SLG%
- 4 HRs
The regression monster is coming to bite these two dolts tonight and pay us back the money they owe us. The best way justice could be served is if Rea serves up an absolute tater to the Pirates leadoff hitter, and we cash this yes run first inning bet on moonshot home run!
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Pirates-Brewers YRFI (+104 at FanDuel)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Angels | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
Now, after we cash that yes run first inning bet in Milwaukee, we’ll be counting our dollars while we wait for the night cap NRFI bet we have on this Cardinals-Angels game.
I’m a noted Cardinals hater, which comes as no surprise that I’m targeting this offense for a no run first inning bet. And the Trout-less Angels are always a prime target for a NRFI.
It’s #ManCrushMonday — is that still a thing? … if not, we’re bringing it back. Because Jose Soriano is on the mound for Los Angeles, and, well, he’s one of MY DUDES!
We’re talking about a guy who just brings pure GAS — 99.1 mph average fastball velocity and a 98 mph average SINKER. That’s just silly.
Not only can he throw incredibly hard, but he’s in the 96th percentile in baseball in ground ball rate, which is incredible when you need a double play to escape some damage.
The Cardinals strikeout nearly 25% of the time against right-handed pitching and rank in the bottom half of the league in terms of hard contact against righties.
Soriano’s biggest issue has been walks, and since the start of May, St. Louis is 19th in walks. The more help it can give him by swinging at some pitches out of the zone, the better.
The Cardinals are sending out a ground ball guy of their own in Matthew Liberatore, who has shown some pretty strong improvement from 2023.
He’s increased the sinker and cutter usage, and basically killed the curveball. This has produced early results that has his WHIP down from 1.48 in 2023 to 1.18 so far in 2024 — a very nice change.
Like Soriano, his sinker is getting a lot of grounders, and he’s in the 90th percentile in ground ball rate, according to Statcast data.
This Angels lineup doesn’t scare me with Nolan Schanuel, Cole Tucker, Taylor Ward and Kevin Pillar as the likely mix in the top four.
We’re riding with the no run first inning bet here all day despite the 8.5 total here. These teams aren’t great offensively, and if this game does go over the total, most of the damage is probably done when their trash bullpens enter the game.
It’s NRFI city tonight in this one. Let’s cash it!
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Cardinals-Angels NRFI (-115 at BetMGM)
