We’re looking at a couple of strong NRFI bets today for this Monday, May 20 MLB slate. I’ve found a couple of spots with pretty decent value opportunities where we can attack. No pussyfootin’ around; let’s get to the no run first inning picks and predictions for today.
If you’re hungry for more, check out our MLB betting tools or our other MLB articles! Also, check out our guide to NRFI & YRFI betting.
NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Best No & Yes Run First Inning Picks
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
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The NRFI bets start in Tampa Bay today, where the Rays welcome the Red Sox to the Trop. We have Taj Bradley and Tanner Houck on the mound and only a 7.5 projected total, so we’re not expecting a ton of runs in this one — always a good start for a no run first inning bet.
Bradley is making just his third start for the Rays this season after working his way back from a pectoral injury.
In his two starts, he’s 1-1 on NRFIs — cashed against the Yankees and YRFI’d against the Red Sox in his last start. However, the last start was AT Fenway Park. And you know we don’t F with NRFIs in Fenway.
However, Bradley has looked good through two starts, managing a 2.45 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP and 13 strikeouts in 11 innings.
His velocity has looked good (96.2 mph average fastball), and the curveball has also looked sharp (62 inches of drop).
This game is in Tampa, which is a much better park for Bradley, and as long as he can keep Jarren Duran off the bases early, I like him to be able to navigate this first inning cleanly.
For Houck, he’s 8-1 on NRFI bets this year and just cashed out against the Rays his last start on May 15.
The Rays have basically been a middle-of-the-pack offense all season, and against right-handed pitching it’s been no different. They’re league average in wRC+ against righties and 20th in wOBA.
Houck will make the Rays earn everything because he isn’t putting guys on base via the walk. He’s 87th percentile in walk rate this season and has only issued 11 free passes in his 58 innings.
So long as he can continue to limit the walks and not get barreled (89th percentile in barrel rate), we stand a great chance to cash this NRFI bet today. Let’s fire it up.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Red Sox-Rays NRFI (-120 at bet365)
Baltimore Orioles vs. St. Louis Cardinals | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
It’s bird-on-bird crime in St. Louis, but we only need to watch for the first six outs. And we’re hoping it’ll be six quickies.
The Cardinals send their ace Sonny Gray to the mound with the daunting task of taking on the vaunted Baltimore Orioles lineup.
The O’s offense has SMASHED most of the season. HOWEVER, if we look at their splits against right-handed pitching, they do rank 13th in wRC+ and 15th in wOBA, so a lot of the damage they do is against lefties.
Gray has put on a few masterclasses this season, and if we look at his home splits:
- 0.98 ERA
- 18.1 Innings Pitched
- 23 Strikeouts
- .200/.224/.231 Triple-Slash
Needless to say, Gray REALLY enjoys pitching in Busch Stadium. So we should feel pretty confident backing the Cardinals No. 1 with the NRFI today.
On the Orioles side, we have Dean Kremer getting the ball, and while the Cardinals offense has gotten a bit of a shot in the arm of late, I don’t trust it to be all that real.
Kremer has pitched well, and the 1.02 is especially impressive. What’s even more impressive is that Kremer is rocking an 8-0 record on NRFI bets this season.
The Cardinals are 26th in baseball in first inning run percentage, scoring in just under 20% of their first inning chances.
So long as Kremer can stay away from serving up a home run ball — which is his only real issue — in the first inning, we’re golden here. And Busch Stadium is generally a good park for pitchers anyway.
Let’s take the NRFI bet today in Orioles-Cardinals at -115 odds and go for the sweep!
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Orioles-Cardinals NRFI (-115 at DraftKings)
