BANG! That’s back-to-back sweeps on our no run first inning bets! So, we’re on a 4-0 run entering this week, which puts us 40-28 overall on the season on NRFI picks — a nice mark for the first full week of May.
And, if you needed extra incentive to come check out our OddsShopper Discord and Betting Tools, we had an absolute PRINT FEST yesterday.
A FULL SWEEP on the betting card with four plus-money bets — highlighted by a +830 Luis Garcia HR and Jesse Winker +750 HR! I mean … c’mon!
I’m just lining your pockets with cash!
Come hang, check out all our expert picks and sweat bets with the whole crew. You can join here, and take 20% off when you sign up using promo code NATHAN.
As for no run first inning bets today, I have a pair of NRFI picks that I am actually kind of in love with, and they’re pretty juicy value. So, before these books start seeing us betting these bad boys too fast and taking away our good lines, let’s get into the best no run first inning bets for Monday, May 6.
If you’re hungry for more, check out our MLB betting tools or our other MLB articles! Also, check out our guide to NRFI & YRFI betting.
NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Best No & Yes Run First Inning Picks
Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
Editor’s note: You can use code “POSITIVE” to get our industry-leading premium tools for 50% off (regular price: $49.95) — far more affordable than the industry average of $200 per month.
You know that Jack Nicholson nodding gif from Anger Management? That was me this morning when I saw a -115 odds on this Mariners-Twins no run first inning line.
We’re getting some great conditions to start with in Minnesota: nearly 20 mph winds blowing in from center field, which should help to suppress some of the 45% fly ball rate Twins starter Simeon Woods Richardson has so far this season.
The projected total in this game is only sitting at 7.5, which is a great sign as well, especially considering Woods-Richardson is a 23-year-old prospect who has less than 50 Major League innings under his belt.
Seattle has been a below-league-average team offensively against right-handed pitching this season, sitting at 20th in the MLB in wRAA (runs above average based on wOBA) at -6.9.
Not to mention, they’re the team that strikes out the biggest percentage of the time against right-handed pitching so far this season at 28.7%.
While Woods Richardson isn’t a HUGE strikeout guy — just 19.6% K rate — he might get a little bit of a bump here, which is always nice when we’re going for a NRFI.
But, I love having a guy like Luis Castillo on the bump in the bottom half of the inning to close out the no run first inning for us.
Castillo is 5-2 on NRFIs this season despite his early season struggles where he gave up four earned runs in each of his first three games.
My man has been dialed back in of late, and the data we really care about has been steady throughout:
- Chase Rate: 32.7% … 82nd Percentile
- Whiff Rate: 28.6% … 69th Percentile (niiiice)
- Strikeout Rate: 28.7% … 81st Percentile
- Walk Rate: 4.7% … 88th Percentile
The fella is still getting it done, and as much as the Mariners like to strike out, the Twins fancy themselves a swing-and-miss just as much against right-handed pitching — coming in with a 24.4% strikeout rate against RHP.
We’re gonna rock with the -115 value, and ride the back of the ace Castillo in the bottom half of the inning to get the no run first inning victory here.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Mariners-Twins NRFI (-115 FanDuel)
Milwaukee Brewers vs Kansas City Royals | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
I might have a problem guys. It’s Cole Ragans. At this point, it’s become an addiction I think. I’d have to go back and check my records, but I believe I’ve been on the NRFI bet for every Cole Ragans start this season. And you’re out of your GD mind if you think we’re hopping off now.
And when FanDuel hung a -104 line on this Brewers-Royals no run first inning bet today?!? I broke out into my Dick Vitale “ARE YOU SERIOUS?!?”
Ragans is 5-2 on no run first inning opportunities this year, and has cashed four straight NRFIs heading into tonight’s matchup against Milwaukee.
Just take a look at Ragan’s statcast data here. He’s gushing blood basically.
All that red in the middle section around the chase, whiff and strikeout is exactly what we’re looking for out of a pitcher.
His xERA (3.42) is basically directly in line with his current ERA of 3.44, so he’s been pitching right in line with his performance. No flukiness one way or another.
The Brewers strike out 25.5% of the time against lefties this season, and are 23rd in all of baseball in wRC+ as well.
So, they’re struggling to generate offense against southpaws, which is just another feather in the cap of our young left-handed friend.
For the Brewers, they’re sending Bryse Wilson out to try to shut down the Royals offense, which has gotten a lot of praise so far this season thanks to Bobby Witt Jr.
Wilson isn’t a household name, but the fella is 2-1 on NRFI chances in his three starts this season, and got the cashes against the Pirates and Padres. So, not TERRIBLE offenses.
Look, I could sit here and try to spin this six ways to Sunday on you. But I’m not going to do that. This is strictly a value play based on the -104 odds FanDuel gave us. We’re getting nearly a +100 line here with an ace on one side, and a Royals offense that is legitimately dead-middle of the league in wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
The bottom half of this inning might get sweaty as hell, but that’s why we love the NRFI bets. Grab your no run first inning bet ticket for Brewers-Royals, and hold onto your butts.
Let’s go for 6-0, friends.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Brewers-Royals NRFI (-104 FanDuel)
