BANG! Our old friend the broom is back with a 2-0 sweep on our no run first inning bets! Even with Jesus Luzardo being scratched, we still managed two sweat-free cashes on our NRFI picks, and moved our overall record to 35-23 on yes/no run first inning bets this season. I have two no run first inning picks for Saturday, April 27, and we’re getting -115 value on both, which I LOVE!
If you’re hungry for more, check out our MLB betting tools or our other MLB articles! Also, check out our guide to NRFI & YRFI betting.
NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Best No & Yes Run First Inning Picks
Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
Despite the baseball gods’ attempts to hurt us yesterday by taking away our NRFI King, we got the last laugh and extended our little NRFI winning streak to an 8-3 run with the help of a Nats-Marlins no run first inning. And we’re going right back to it today.
Edward Cabrera gets the ball for the Fish today, and in his two starts since returning from injury, he has looked solid.
The righty has posted a 3.27 ERA with 17 strikeouts in 11 innings, but the WHIP could be better, sitting at 1.45.
However, when we pull up Baseball Savant and check out the statcast data, we see a ton of bright red in a lot of good areas.
Here’s how Cabrera ranks in some meaningful categories:
- Average Exit Velocity: 92nd Percentile
- Chase %: 90th Percentile
- Whiff %: 92nd Percentile
- Strikeout %: 96th Percentile
So, the stuff is there, and the data backs it up. Batters are chasing, swinging and missing, and not squaring it up all that well.
And, this game between the Nationals and Marlins has just a 7.5 projected run total today, which should surprise no one, considering they’re 27th and 28th in runs per game, respectively.
I don’t have as many good things to say about Nats starter Mitchell Parker, but, when we’re looking at a no run first inning bet between two teams who average less than 3.5 runs per game, you don’t need a TON to get behind.
That said, Parker does have a 27.9 strikeout rate and has yet to walk a batter in his 12 innings this season, which is impressive, considering he’s faced the Astros and Dodgers.
And, in those two starts, he’s 1-1 on his no run first inning chances (YRFI’d against the Dodgers in his MLB debut … somewhat to be expected). Those two matchups were far more difficult than this Marlins lineup that is hitting just .193 and has a MLB-worst .244 OBP against lefties.
So, for -115 odds, you can 100% believe I’m taking the no run first inning bet here in a game with such a low total and two putrid offenses.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Nationals-Marlins NRFI -115 at FanDuel
Cleveland Guardians vs Atlanta Braves | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
We’ve been ridin’ the hate train for a hot minute, and rollin’ specifically with the no run first inning bets. But I think today we can look to a spot where there could be some scoring early and root for some fun in the form of a YES run first inning bet. And, what better place to go to a YRFI than in HOTLANTA?!?
OK, it might not be THAT hot in Atlanta yet (our MLB weather report calls for 60 degree temperatures), but I just wanted to say Hotlanta. Sue me.
We’ll start quickly with the Guardians, who are surprisingly averaging 5.23 runs per game this season and are finally getting big-time production from Josh Naylor.
With Steven Kwan and his .377 OBP atop the lineup, he’s been setting everything up for Jose Ramirez and Naylor to drive in runs — and they’ve been doing just that with 43 RBIs between the two.
Cleveland will likely deploy five lefties in the top of its lineup to face Charlie Morton, who is worse against left-handed batters in his career (.255 AVG, .347 OBP, .412 SLG) than he is righties (.242/.309/.355). So, we’re live with Cleveland to get us the YRFI in the top half, which we always love when betting the yes run first inning.
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But the real fun always starts when the Braves come to bat in the bottom half of the inning. That’s when unanimous 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. leads things off, who can always take any pitch he sees out of the park. In fact, he has hit 34 leadoff home runs in his career, and we wouldn’t mind a 35th today to cash our YRFI.
Still, there are myriad ways we get this done. Any way Acuna can find his way on base is a plus. Especially with Bo Naylor likely behind the plate for the Guardians, who is one of the worst catchers in terms of pop time in baseball (2.02 seconds). So, if Acuna gets on, expect him to run early, and often.
Getting a runner into scoring position quickly, and having a couple of cracks at cashing this YRFI with less than one out would be ideal. Especially with the likes of Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley and Matt Olson coming up.
Guardians starter Tanner Bibee has been… well, let’s just say he’s been less than stellar. Outside of a good whiff rate, none of the other underlying data looks all that great for him — especially his 10.8% walk rate. And if there’s one thing we want when looking for a YES run first inning bet, it’s baserunners. So, the more the merrier.
We haven’t seen the Braves erupt for one of those 10-run games in some time, and I think this could be the spot, especially with Bibee struggling with his command and hard-hit rate.
I’m a simp for value, and I can’t pass up -110 value on two offenses that I believe have multiple avenues to scoring runs, so I’m gonna go down swinging at the yes run first inning here with Guardians-Braves.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Guardians-Braves YRFI -110 at Caesars
