We were dealt our first real kick in the NRFI nuts yesterday. Yes, it was our first, but it definitely won’t be our last of the season. However, if you WATCHED those first innings in the Yankees-Diamondbacks and Orioles-Royals games, you know EXACTLY what I’m talking about. There was some REALLLL f*ckery going on.
(checks with editor: am I allowed to say that? … Editor note: Ugh, we’ll let it ride!)
Either way, it was a tough way to go 0-2, losing a NRFI bet on a misplayed ball, and losing a YRFI bet after we get a man on third base with one out and the Dbacks can’t get him home. I was left pulling out three of the last seven hairs I have left on my head. But it’s cool. It’s cool. Long season. And I’ve got revenge planned.
With such a small MLB slate, we’re only rocking with one NRFI bet today for Thursday, April 4. If you’re hungry for more, check out our MLB betting tools or our other MLB articles! Also, check out our guide to NRFI & YRFI betting.
NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Best No & Yes Run First Inning Picks
Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | NRFI & YRFI Bets Today
Thursday’s MLB slate is small, so we’re only going to focus on one NRFI bet today, but I think it’s a good one. I was honing in on it last night as the lines opened, and I saw the line opened at -130/-135 on DraftKings and another offshore book. No other books wanted to drop a line on it, but I didn’t want to put any coin on a NRFI at -130 or worse when no other books would put a number on it, because there can be quite a difference in how these books price this market, and we should exploit that whenever we can. And low and behold, when I got up this morning, I found a nice little no run first inning bet sitting at -120 at Bet365.
We’re getting two quality starters here in Pablo Lopez and Tanner Bibee, which is reflected in the 7.5 total.
And, right now, we’re getting some slight juice coming in toward the under — FanDuel has it at -122. The OVER is priced at +100. So, we love to see that in terms of books pricing it with the idea that runs should be somewhat hard to come by.
Lopez will be facing this Guardians lineup that is playing an afternoon game after having to travel back from Seattle after a game yesterday afternoon. So, is there potential for some drowsy bats? Possibly. It wouldn’t stun me.
But, what really has me intrigued with Lopez is his whiff% on both his fastball and sweeper in his last start. He had a 52.2% whiff rate on his fastball against the Royals in his first start of the season, which is incredibly impressive, especially since it was only topping out at 95.1 mph.
Not that 95.1 is anything to sneeze at, but it’s not like he’s dialing it up at 97,98,99 consistently. So, that shows me that the 95.1 has deception out of the hand, and likely some type of late movement.
Will he be able to replicate that again?
I can’t say that for certain, especially because the Guardians aren’t a heavy strikeout team, but the sweeper I mentioned is one of the tougher pitches for Guardians hitters Steven Kwan, Andres Gimenez and Jose Ramirez to handle. Ramirez always has potential to do some damage, but Kwan and Gimenez don’t scare me much, nor does Josh Naylor hitting behind Ramirez.
So, I see Lopez being able to navigate the top of the first and keeping our no run first inning bet intact, and being able to get the ball to Tanner Bibee to close it out for us in the bottom half.
Now, Bibee had a far worse first outing than Lopez. He walked FIVE guys, gave up three runs and six hits … to the A’s. You really do hate to see that. However, for a guy who walked 45 batters in 142 innings a year ago, that feels like a bit of a fluke.
Part of the reason this Twins offense is a good target for a NRFI bet these days is because it’s down Royce Lewis. So, there’s one less home run threat you have to face in the first inning, which is always good for the ole heart rate.
What’s also good for the ole heart rate is the three pitches Bibee features most — four-seamer, slider, changeup — just happen to be three of the pitches the top three hitters in the Twins lineup don’t do all that much damage against.
Edouard Julien, Alex Kirilloff and Byron Buxton all struggle against sliders, according to Baseball Savant’s run value by pitch type charts. And, only Julien really gets on four-seamers. So, the big key here for Bibee is to find a way to get Julien out. After all, he did have 33 extra-base hits last year, so he does have some pop for being a leadoff hitter.
I think we’re going to know after Batter 1 in the bottom of the first if we’re cashing this NRFI bet today or not based on whether or not Bibee retires Julien.
For our sake, let’s hope Bibee can feed Julien a steady diet of sliders and induce some weak contact for a weak out, then settle in to retire the side. Hell, why not just give us a sweat-free cash for this NRFI bet today?!?
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Guardians-Twins NRFI (-120 Bet365)
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