BANG! We took a trip to Broom City last night, and cashed both of our no run first inning bets. We knew that sweep was coming with how solid the reads had been on the NRFI picks of late, with just some incredibly wacky results. It’s a small slate of games on this Thursday, May 2, so we’re only rocking with one yes/no run first inning bet today. Let’s get to our NRFI and YRFI bets today.
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NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Best No & Yes Run First Inning Picks
Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
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We finally saw the true colors of the Cubs and Mets come out in the first inning of last night’s game, when there wasn’t any kind of shenanigans going on. Well, this afternoon, we get to watch two absolute scumbags in Ben Brown and Adrian Houser toe the rubber. So, I’ll give you one guess if we’re going NRFI or YRFI in this one …
If you guessed NRFI, well, you lose.
Despite having just an 8.5 total, this game screams YRFI to me.
Let’s just start with Houser. He’s been rocked for an 8.37 ERA in 23.2 innings, and the xERA is 6.52, which is still BOTTOM 5% IN THE LEAGUE!
So, while the expected number is better, it’s still terrible. And, yeah, it doesn’t take much to have a better expected number than 8.37.
Moreover, this cat legitimately can’t strike anyone out. His 12.3% strikeout rate puts him in the bottom 4% of pitchers in baseball this season, which really helps Cubs batters like Ian Happ and Michael Busch, who have sky-high K rates.
Not only is Houser struggling to miss bats, he’s struggling to keep guys off the bases in general, which we love when looking at a yes run first inning bet. His 1.90 WHIP lets you know he’s all about allowing baserunners.
The Cubs should at least have a man or two on in the top of the first inning, so we could cash this YRFI early.
But if we don’t cash this one off the hop, it’s always great to have Ben Brown as your fallback option.
There isn’t much to say about Brown, because, well, he throws two pitches — a fastball and a knuckle curve. As a starter against Major League hitters, that ain’t gonna get it done, fella.
Brown is giving up 64.6% hard contact in his 23 innings and an absurd 96 mph AVERAGE exit velocity. So, in other words, dudes are SMOKING this guy.
There isn’t much true analysis to give here other than Ben Brown isn’t a Major League pitcher, and with Starling Marte, Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso likely hitting in three of the top four spots today, it’ll be a tough test for him. I really like the Mets chances of plating at least one run here in the first inning.
And if you’re looking to get spicy, I think you could look at a Pete Alonso home run here at +400 on FanDuel, and gave out another home run pick — you can see it here.
At +105 value on Caesars? This is just absolutely priced wrong, and we have to punish them for giving us this type of line with these two gas cans on the mound. It was always the yes run first inning.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Cubs-Mets YRFI (+105 Caesars)
