“The more money we come across, the more problems we see.” — The Notorious B.I.G.
Well, I have come here to tell you, while that 1997 song still slaps, the lyric isn’t true. Because, well, we’ve been stackin’ up that cash winning these no run first inning bets like crazy lately, and there ain’t no problem in the world for us right now! We did it again last night, cashing our Blue Jays-Royals NRFI pick in sweat-free fashion. That’s now a 9-3 run for us on these NRFI and YRFI bets, so with all due respect to Biggie … we out here.
We’re back to a larger slate of games today, so, I’ve got two no run first inning bets for you on this lovely Tuesday, April 23. If you’re hungry for more, check out our MLB betting tools or our other MLB articles! Also, check out our guide to NRFI & YRFI betting.
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NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Best No & Yes Run First Inning Picks
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Kansas City Royals | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
My friends, how fun was it to watch that relatively sweat-free no run first inning bet cash at -105/-108 yesterday? That was INCREDIBLE value we got on the Jays-Royals NRFI yesterday, and we’re heading right back to the scene of the crime again today. The books are still hanging too much value on these no run first inning lines for these teams, and we can’t pass it up until they prove us wrong.
Let’s start with Kevin Gausman. Yes, he’s been abysmal to start the year.
The ERA is basically sky high, sitting at 8.16 through four starts. However, that’s through FOUR starts. We’re looking at an incredibly small sample size still.
And, not to mention, the guy has gotten BABIP’d to death — a .386 BABIP is unsustainable. Is some of that his own doing? Sure. But, that is destined to regress to the mean.
The swinging strike rates and called strike rates are nearly identical to what they were last year, it’s just been a bit of a run of bad luck early for Gausman. And he’s faced the Yankees twice and Rays once.
I’m thinking the last start he had is more in line with what we’re going to see from him moving forward, where he posted a pitching line of: 5 innings, 4 hits, 1 run and 6 strikeouts.
We’re not dealing with the same type of wind blowing out in Kauffman Stadium tonight, which is also a feather in our cap here. So I am full faith in Gausman tonight in helping us get this NRFI.
However, the top half of this no run first inning bet? This one could get interesting. But, this dude has made me eat crow a few times already this season. So, what do I know when it comes to Michael Wacha?
Wacha is 4-0 on NRFI chances this season, which is as good as it gets, obviously. However, what does scare me a bit is that three of those four games came against the White Sox (2) and Mets.
The Blue Jays aren’t White Sox or Mets bad, but they’re not Dodgers or Braves good. They’re basically the posterchild for league average offense, which we touched on yesterday.
Wacha’s game is to keep hitters off-balance by using his changeup, and outside of Bo Bichette, not many Toronto hitters handle the changeup well.
He’s navigated his way through the first inning well so far this season, let’s hope he can continue the trend tonight and get us the NRFI.
We take the great -106 value at FanDuel, and ride the no run first inning bet today in Blue Jays-Royals once more.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Blue Jays-Royals NRFI (-106 FanDuel)
New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
Again, it feels like the books are giving us far too much value on a no run first inning bet here, and we have to hammer them for it.
As we can see, Pinnacle Sportsbook, which is known as one of the sharper — if not the sharpest — sportsbooks in the world is hanging this Mets-Giants NRFI line at -134 odds, and we have FanDuel graciously giving us a -118 line.
So, how can we not take the 16-point discount here and smile in the process of doing it? I mean, we absolutely HAVE to … even if it IS Luis Severino on the mound for the Mets tonight.
That’s the importance of shopping the lines on these no run first inning bets — or any any bet really — guys. You have to do it to maximize your profits.
And the Shop Bets function at OddsShopper is one of the quickest ways to do that, which is all part of the subscription package that includes all the prop bets, parlay builders and Discord. Check it out here if you want.
Now, back to our regularly scheduled programming — bad jokes, mediocre analysis and great NRFI picks.
I mentioned Severino is on the mound for the Mets already, so let’s just hit on that quick. The fella is 3-1 on no run first inning opportunities, and has cashed the NRFI in his last three. What surprised me most was that is underlying numbers are mostly in line with his raw numbers — 3.73 FIP, 3.53 xFIP.
So, we’re not looking at a guy that’s just getting lucky. He’s made a big change in pitch arsenal, abandoning the heavy use of the slider from a year ago (18.7%), and going to the cutter more this season (17.4%). The slider now makes up only 12% of his pitch mix, and the sinker has now become his third-most used pitch.
There’s a real change in philosophy, which we can likely attribute to this success. And, the top of the Giants order doesn’t handle his pitch mix all that well. Truth be told, I’m not all that scared of the Giants lineup outside of the power of Jorge Soler — and even he has plenty of swing-and-miss in his game with a nearly 23% strikeout rate.
Logan Webb? Well, we’ve been riding him a few times this season, and he’s been a NRFI stud for us. He’s 3-2 overall, but he’s 3-0 on no run first inning bets when we’ve gone to the well with him.
Against the Mets and their 28th-ranked first-inning offense, I have all the confidence in the world in Webb to be able to deliver another NRFI for us.
And, if he can’t, at least I know we went down fighting the good fight attempting to get every bit of value from these sportsbooks as we can.
So, we take our 9-3 winning streak into the latest game on the slate, and hope to come out on the other side 11-3 after cashing the Mets-Giants no run first inning bet.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Mets-Giants NRFI (-118 FanDuel)
