We swept our NRFI bets last night and cashed ALL THE NO RUN FIRST INNING BET TICKETS IN ALL THE LAND! After last night’s 2-0 on our NRFI picks, that puts us on an 11-4 run in our last 15 NRFI/YRFI predictions and almost at a 60% winning percentage on the season. If we can keep that type of pace up all year, we’ll be SMASHING. Let’s look to repeat that 2-0 on our NRFI bets today with these two picks I have for Tuesday, May 14.
If you’re hungry for more, check out our MLB betting tools or our other MLB articles! Also, check out our guide to NRFI & YRFI betting.
NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Best No & Yes Run First Inning Picks
Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox (Game 2) | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
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The yes/no run first inning bet we’re going with for this one is for GAME 2 OF THIS DOUBLEHEADER; I want to stress this right now so there is no confusion. We good? OK.
The Nationals-White Sox got washed out yesterday, so they’re playing today, and this is actually going to help us out quite a bit with this NRFI bet.
As you know, I never assume we’ll get any breaks in any lineup when betting NRFIs. Always assume you’ll get the toughest possible lineup, and if you get a watered-down version in any way, it’s gravy, baby.
I’m not BANKING on it, but there’s a chance we get some of that today in Chicago in Game 2 from either side.
As shocking as it still is to you, it’s just as shocking to me, but we’re backing the Fedde Monster again on the NRFI train.
Erick Fedde has been … dare I say … good this season? He’s working with a 1.16 WHIP, 3.00 ERA and is a strikeout-per-inning guy through 45 innings.
Honestly, I can’t believe this is real, but even the underlying numbers on Baseball Savant are telling me it’s more real than it isn’t. So we’re going to believe it — for now.
Fedde is 6-2 on NRFI bets this year, and he was good to us last time out when we fired him up on this bet.
Washington is dead last in first inning run percentage this season (15.38%) after being No. 8 overall a year ago. So they’re struggling to score runs early this season.
We can also see the White Sox are not far behind in terms of first inning run rate — just 19.51%.
Mitchell Parker is 3-2 on NRFIs and has blanked the Astros, Rangers and Orioles to earn his three no run first inning cashes. So he can certainly handle the lowly White Sox.
I like this spot here, especially given how bad the White Sox have been against left-handed pitching. The -105 value on this NRFI bet today is just manna from heaven. Let’s cash this ticket.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Nationals-White Sox NRFI (-105 at DraftKings)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Angels | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
If you weren’t watching the game last night, we got a TAD lucky with how that NRFI bet played out. A line-drive smash turned into an inning-ending double play to cash us out, but it be like that sometimes. We’ve certainly been on the wrong side of variance on some of these NRFI bets already this year, so it was nice to cash in on some good luck.
We’re going right back to the well with this Cardinals-Angles NRFI bet today.
The pitching matchup is oddly strong despite it featuring a name like Reid Detmers on the Angels side. Let’s start with him.
Detmers has been more than a bit unlucky through his 45.1 innings in 2024.
He’s pitched well enough to have an expected ERA a full run lower than his current ERA of 4.45 and an expected batting average of .224, which is in the 71st percentile.
But what’s most impressive about the lefty is that he’s getting more swing-and-miss. He’s upped the changeup usage against right-handed batters, and it’s been a godsend for him in the form of a 30.3% whiff rate — he hasn’t thrown a single changeup to a lefty all season.
The Cardinals are basically second-to-last in every meaningful offensive metric against left-handed pitching this year too. So it feels like we can trust Detmers here.
On the Cardinals side of things, we have Sonny Gray, who had been a NRFI bet god before getting demolished by the Brewers in the first inning his last time out.
Gray is 5-1 on no run first inning chances this year, but this Angels lineup is nowhere near the same beast as Milwaukee, so we can comfortably go back to the Cardinals ace here.
The righty should be able to secure the final three outs we need and the bag for us as we cash the final NRFI bet today and extend our run to 13-4.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Cardinals-Angels NRFI (-125 at BetMGM)
