The last two weeks of NRFI bets, picks and predictions had been filled with a 6-0 run and 16-8 record in May. And because I went 1-1 two days straight (Friday and Saturday), the Twitter goblins and YouTube keyboard warriors were out in full force — peep the screenshots here of them telling me how bad my NRFI bets are.
I’ve never been able to dunk a basketball in my life, but last night I went full 2000 Vince Carter on ’em. It was a total windmill jam on the haters as we cashed two no run first inning bets on our way to YET ANOTHER SWEEP!
As I said in yesterday’s video: “To all my real ones: We ride together; we die together; and I love y’all.”
Now let’s get to Tuesday’s NRFI picks and predictions!
If you’re hungry for more, check out our MLB betting tools or our other MLB articles! Also, check out our guide to NRFI & YRFI betting.
NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Best No & Yes Run First Inning Picks
Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
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The White Sox and Blue Jays had a great NRFI bet opportunity yesterday in the early window of games, and a lot of people took advantage of it. Tonight it’s the evening slate, and we’re not going to miss the -115 value Caesars is providing us.
Lefty Yusei Kikuchi is on the mound for the Jays, and he has been nothing short of phenomenal in 2024.
In 52 innings, he’s pitched his way to a 2.60 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and is 6-3 on no run first inning chances. And two of the three he lost were to teams that are top 3 against lefties in basically all offensive categories — the Dodgers and Orioles.
Tonight he gets a matchup against a team that ranks as the WORST against lefties in:
- wOBA: .252
- wRC+: 60
- ISO: .099
- OBP: .261
And on top of that? It strikes out at nearly a 25% clip, which plays directly into the hands of Kikuchi, who is racking up 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings.
I always feel good targeting the White Sox with a NRFI, and I especially do with a guy like Kikuchi on the bump.
For the Sox, we get their young budding ace Garrett Crochet, who is actually leading all MLB pitchers in K/9 at 12.19 — pretty incredible.
Through 10 starts, Crochet is 9-1 on NRFI bets for us, and the one he didn’t hit was a ridiculously lucky two-out home run that only happened because of a misplayed ball a play earlier. So in theory, he should be 10-0 on no run first innings.
The Blue Jays don’t possess an offense that strikes a ton of fear in you — yesterday they hit Davis Schneider and Danny Jansen back-to-back atop the lineup. Against lefties, they’re a bit better as a team but are still below league average in wOBA, wRC+ and OPS.
I’m dancing with the guys who have gotten us to the window a few times already this season in Kikuchi and Crochet, and we’re riding the NRFI bet today in this battle north of the border.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: White Sox-Blue Jays NRFI (-115 at Caesars)
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
We might be grabbing the “oh sh*t” handle a bit on this bet tonight, but I’m a sucker for some value and -110 is good enough to take a stab here.
I was really, REALLLLLY close to taking the +105 NRFI bet today on Tigers-Royals but figured that might be a bridge too far given the weather conditions in Kansas City. So we’re settling here for more tame conditions and a lower projected total and running back the no run first inning pick in Tampa.
Zack Littell hasn’t been praying to our NRFI God Jesus Luzardo, which is evident by his 5-4 record on NRFIs. But we have a decent recipe set up for him to be able to get one here.
He just faced this Red Sox team his last time out and got a no-sweat NRFI in Fenway Park, and now he gets them in the comfort of the Trop.
We know he’s not going to walk guys and he’s going to make them earn it, and the Red Sox have plenty of guys who will go up hacking — a 24.3% strikeout rate against righties. The splitter is Littell’s best whiff pitch, and we should see a lot of that in this top half of the first.
I feel like I say this EVERY TIME we target the Red Sox for a NRFI, but if we keep Jarren Duran off base to lead off the game, it feels like it’s almost a lock to cash.
Boston has Cooper Criswell and his unblemished 7-0 NRFI record on the mound in the bottom half of the first inning.
He’s another guy who doesn’t walk many batters and ranks in the 79th percentile in walk rate in MLB this season. He doesn’t throw overly hard, but he knows how to sink his fastball and can get ground balls with the best of them.
The Rays? Well, they hit the third-most ground balls of any team against right-handed pitching this season at 46.4%. That’s an incredibly high number, so we should see the infield get put to work for the Red Sox early.
And if the Rays get a man on, it could mean a twin-killing to help Criswell work out of an early jam.
For -110, we could do far worse than the NRFI bet, so let’s make it back-to-back sweeps!
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Red Sox-Rays NRFI (-110 at BetMGM)
