You’d think these teams would be tired of coming up with new ways to lose NRFI bets every day, but … clearly they are not. We had a 1-1 night on our no run first inning bets last night with ANOTHER TOUGH BEAT. But we have good news to share. For the rest of Wednesday, May 1, you can get one full week of OddsShopper Betting Tools and Discord for ONLY $1 when using promo code DINGER.
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But we have two more no run first inning bets for the evening slate of games on Wednesday, May 1, so let’s dig into it, because we have some extra revenge in our hearts tonight.
If you’re hungry for more, check out our MLB betting tools or our other MLB articles! Also, check out our guide to NRFI & YRFI betting.
NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Best No & Yes Run First Inning Picks
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
I’m a sucker for some value, and we’ve found some good value here in Baltimore. We’re getting -104 on the no run first inning bet today with Corbin Burnes and Luis Gil on the mound.
Burnes has been a bit up and down when it comes to NRFIs this season, but overall, he’s been very good.
He has a 5.8% walk rate, which ranks in the 77th percentile in all of baseball, as well as a whiff rate just a shade below 30%.
The strikeout potential should be there today against a Yankees top of the lineup, with Anthony Volpe, Aaron Judge carrying strikeout rates of 26% or higher and either Giancarlo Stanton or Anthony Rizzo likely hitting in the four spot — and they carry a 31.5% and 22.1% strikeout rate, respectively.
Juan Soto will likely be his toughest out to get if he’s in the lineup, which we have to expect he will be. Whenever we’re betting NRFIs, we’re always going in expecting the toughest possible lineup — and if we get any kind of watered down options, that’s gravy.
Soto walks A LOT, and we know Burnes doesn’t walk many guys, so he’ll challenge Soto with his cutter mostly, which Soto has a -0.5 run value against this season — one of the ONLY pitches he has a negative run value against.
The Yankees haven’t been the potent offense many thought they’d be thus far, so let’s take a shot with Burnes notching three outs for us here.
And to bring us home, we’re looking at Yankees youngster Luis Gil, who is in the 99th percentile in expected batting average. That’s just a fancy of way of saying the expected batting average against him this season should be FAR LOWER than what it actually is based on the type of contact that has been made, so he’s been a bit unlucky. Currently, his expected batting average against is .138, which is in the top 1% of the league, which could help explain some of his 4.01 ERA so far.
However, he does walk a few too many guys. But — and this is a big but — the Orioles basically REFUSE to walk. They have the second-fewest walks in all of baseball. Yes, fewer walks than the Rockies, A’s AND White Sox. The only team with fewer walks than the Orioles is the Marlins. So maybe their swing-happy nature could help Gil out here a bit more than he normally would be.
I have no doubt we’re going to see offense in this game, but it feels like it will likely come the second or third time through the order, and once the bullpens come in.
At -104, the value is just too salivating to pass on, so we’re going with the Yankees-Orioles no run first inning bet today, and hoping Burnes gives us the 1-2-3 inning we’re looking for in the top half and Gil limits the walks to get us to the window.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Yankees-Orioles NRFI (-104, FanDuel)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
The Cubs and Mets might actually be placed on the banned list after today if this no run first inning bet doesn’t behave today. After last night’s shenanigans of having Lindor picked off to have the bases empty with two outs and a favorable count on Pete Alonso, we were primed to sweep. But you know how it ended …
We’re going back to it. One. More. Time.
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Shota Imanaga is 5-0 on no run first inning bets this season, so we know he’s been incredibly strong to start off games.
I’ve gushed about his ability to get batters to swing and miss, especially on pitches outside of the zone, exemplified by his 37.6% chase rate. He’s in the 96th percentile in chase rate.
The Mets are No. 9 in all of baseball in terms of swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone, hacking away at non-strikes 28.9% of the time.
But in the top of the first, the Mets are going to be sending the Booty Man, Jose Butto to the mound, who has been nothing short of fantastic for them this season.
He too has been able to get a ton of swings and misses, racking up a 33.3% whiff rate, which puts him in the 89th percentile of all pitchers in the MLB this season — stunning, honestly.
As we’ve gone over the last two days, the Cubs have plenty of swing-and-miss potential. I know, change the record.
We’re not going to go over it again. You know the drill. This is just pure, unadulterated revenge today.
Fire it up. Cubs-Mets no run first inning. Let’s cash it.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Cubs-Mets NRFI (-120, Caesars)
