We cashed all of our NRFI bets AGAIN! It was another 2-0 night for us in the no run first inning bet streets, and we extended our winning streak to 13-4. Whew, baby, this has been a nice run for us! It got a bit sweaty in that Cardinals-Angels NRFI, but we got ‘er done. The slate for NRFI bets today looks a little whack, so instead of rocking with two picks, we’re whittling it down to one. Like I always say, we’re not about forcing plays when they’re not there. So let’s lock in on the best no run first inning bet for Wednesday, May 15, and come back firing with a few more tomorrow.
If you’re hungry for more, check out our MLB betting tools or our other MLB articles! Also, check out our guide to NRFI & YRFI betting.
NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Best No & Yes Run First Inning Picks
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
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The slate for NRFI bets today looked pretty slim, but we did get a pretty good pitching matchup in this Yankees-Twins game with Pablo Lopez vs. Marcus Stroman — at least in my opinion. The books? Well, they think it’s nearly a toss-up, especially since they gave us -115 value on the no run first inning here.
Of course, we know the Yankees offense has the ability to nuke a ball at a moment’s notice with Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. And the Twins offense has been smashing lately.
Should we be scared? I mean, maybe. But scared money don’t make money!
Actually, I hate the saying, so strike that from the record.
I think it’s a value spot here for a NRFI bet today with -115 odds and a few other factors at play:
- Projected total of 8.0 runs
- Wind blowing in at almost 15 mph
- Two top-of-the-rotation starters
When we get all of those ingredients, it’s the perfect recipe to take a shot on a no run first inning bet.
Lopez is only 4-4 on NRFIs in his eight starts this season, so he hasn’t been lighting the world on fire in the first inning this season. So that might be a bit concerning for some.
But I have faith in what I see under the hood.
The Statcast data shows that Lopez has actually been pitching very well despite the nearly 4.00 ERA in 2024.
As we can see, there are a TON of red dots on Lopez’s pitching chart on Baseball Savant.
And it’s looking good in all of the right places:
- 31.3% Whiff Rate
- 31.6% Strikeout Rate
- 4.6% Walk Rate
- 2.49 Expected ERA
So our fella has been pitching better than the results he’s been getting, and he’s capable of handling the Yankees lineup that features some really strong hitters.
Yes, Soto can hit anyone and work counts to walks. However, Anthony Volpe and Judge both strike out at nearly a 25% to 26% clip, and the Yankees actually have grounded into more double plays than any other American League team.
Stroman is 6-2 on NRFIs this year but did get touched up in the first inning of his last start against the Astros. However, that was in Yankee Stadium, and I always try to avoid betting the no run first inning in that park just due to the sheer shenanigans the dimensions of that stadium can bring.
Target Field is much different, and now we get the wind blowing in on top of it.
Stroman is a big-time ground ball guy as well, ranking in the 90th percentile in ground ball rate with his nasty sinker. That pitch helps him limit hard-hit rate.
He’s never been a monster strikeout guy, but that sinker has always helped him wiggle out of jams with the ability to get a twin-killing when needed. But he could be in for an uptick in strikeouts today, as the Twins strike out at a 24.2% rate against righties this season.
Like I said, the ingredients are here for the NRFI bet today, so we’re just merely following the recipe like a 12-year-old on the back of a box of mac-n-cheese.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Yankees-Twins NRFI (-115 at Fanatics)
