The winning streak on no run first inning bets went to 7-0, and it looked like we were going to sweep AGAIN! But, somehow the scumbags Colin Rea and Seth Lugo continue to be the living embodiment of the Jesse Pinkman He Can’t Keep Getting Away With It GIF from Breaking Bad. Wiggling out of four combined baserunners in the first inning to escape the YRFI … they must’ve sold their souls to something, man. Yeesh. We’ve got split-slate action on Wednesday, and I’ve got a pair of NRFI bets today, so let’s dive into these bad boys, and look to continue our hot streak.
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NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Best No & Yes Run First Inning Picks
New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
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Just a heads up, this is an EARLY GAME, so you’re going to want to lock this pick in quick, because first pitch is at 1:15 p.m. ET. We’ve got a Sonny Gray-Jose Quintana matchup here in St. Louis and the total is less than 8, which I’m just loving to be quite honest.
I’ll start with Sonny Gray because he’s just been lights the f*ck out.
Gray has been basically unhittable in his 30.1 innings pitched this season, and has displayed some just downright filthy stuff.
He’s striking out one out of every three batters he faces, which ranks him in the 93rd percentile of Major League Baseball in that stat category.
He can thank his mix of curveballs and sweepers for that, as he’s racked up a 38.2% and 52.9% whiff rates on those two pitches, respectively.
More importantly, he’s barely allowing runners on freely — walking only five batters in his 30+ innings. His 0.857 WHIP is pornographic, and we love that when we’re eyeing NRFI bets.
I trust Gray to get us three outs in the top of the first and secure us a no run first inning in the the top half.
We’re looking to the old man Jose Quintana to bring home the NRFI for us in the bottom half against a woeful Cardinals offense. And, truthfully, I think he should have no problem doing so.
When we look at the Cardinals ranks against left-handed pitching this season, they look like this:
- On Base Percentage: 27th (.277)
- Slugging Percentage: 29th (.305)
- wOBA: 28th (.263)
- wRC+: 28th (70)
So in all of the important metrics you’d want to see, the Cardinals just STRUGGLE against southpaws, and it makes sense. They have a lot of left-handed bats. Outside of Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt — who haven’t done squat anyway — most of the decent bats are left-handed.
Quintana isn’t a world-beater of a pitcher, and never has been, but he is 6-1 on NRFIs this season — and did NRFI the Cardinals once already.
I like the setup here, so we’re taking the Mets-Cardinals no run first inning bet today.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Mets-Cardinals NRFI (-120 Caesars Sportsbook)
Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
You know one of my favorite things to look at for NRFI picks is the projected total of the game — and this one fits that bill as well with a 7.5 total.
But another sneaky thing you can look at is strikeout rate. And this Mariners-Twins matchup tonight features two teams that strike out nearly 25% or more of the time against right-handed pitching.
The Mariners whiff at a 29% clip against righties, and the Twins are fanning 24% of the time, which helps us drastically when going for the no run first inning.
Twins starter Chris Paddack isn’t known as being a huge swing-and-miss guy, having just a 22.8% whiff rate and 19% strikeout rate this season, but the Mariners and their propensity to strikeout could really boost that up for him.
That type of swing-and-miss cuts down on the variance, and wacky outcomes that happen when balls are put in play often. So, the less we can have balls in play, the easier the desired outcome.
Now, I’m not saying Paddack is gonna strikeout the side, but he might get one or two with how the Mariners are going. And if he can do that, I think we’re going to get to the bottom half and have ourselves another sweep.
Because we get Mariners starter George Kirby in the bottom half, who has been dynamite — and that Baseball Savant Statcast page backs it up. It’s ALL red circles on that chart basically.
Kirby rarely walks guys, and he has been over a strikeout-per-inning guy this season (41 Ks in 38.1 IP). We know the Twins are a strikeout-happy team, so we might be able to expect a couple in the first inning as well.
We’re getting good conditions at Target Field as well, with the wind looking like it should be blowing in from left field at about 10 mph during gametime. So, we’re going to get some suppressed right-handed power, and that also takes away the best power option from Edouard Julien, who can seemingly only hit opposite-field homers.
Kirby has pretty much been a boss in the first inning so far, and is 6-1 on NRFIs this year.
Let’s hope he can continue that trend in a good matchup here.
We’re riding 7-1, let’s take the no run first inning bet and extend our winning streak to 9-1, and head into Thursday with our pockets a little more full.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Mariners-Twins NRFI (-115 Caesars Sportsbook)
