Many will say that opening day has arrived, but I say that the best sweat in sports betting has arrived. Yes, the NRFI and YRFI bets have returned. Six outs separate you from cash or doom. Whether you’re rooting for fun in the form of runs, or being a hater (no runs), it’s a hell of a sweat either way. We had quite a run last year with our no run first inning bets, finishing the season 207-164. Let’s look to replicate that same kind of success in 2024 and get to my top three YRFI and NRFI bets today for Thursday, March 28. If you’re hungry for more, check out our MLB betting tools or our other MLB articles! Also, check out our guide to NRFI & YRFI betting.
NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Best No & Yes Run First Inning Picks
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins | NRFI & YRFI Bets Today
If you read any of the NRFI bet articles last year, you knew that just about every fifth day, you could pretty much take it to the bank I’d be riding the no run first inning bet with the NRFI King himself, Jesus Luzardo. And if you thought things would change this season, well, you’re wrong.
Of course we’re going to be riding with the fella who cashed us out more often than he didn’t. Luzardo allowed only 10 first-inning runs a season ago while piling up 208 strikeouts in 178.2 innings. He’s got massive swing-and-miss potential, which we love to see when we’re targeting a NRFI bet. Plus, we know this Pittsburgh offense doesn’t have a ton of firepower behind it.
If we’re talking about offenses that don’t have a ton of firepower, the Marlins were already struggling to score runs last year (fifth-fewest in MLB, 666 runs) and lost their best power threat in Jorge Soler. I’m not saying Mitch Keller is Cy Young material, but I’m saying that he’s good enough to get us three outs in the bottom half.
It might get a bit sweaty because it seems like Luis Arraez is basically a shoo-in for at least a single to lead off every game, but I’m confident Keller gets it done for us.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Pirates-Marlins NRFI -135 at DraftKings
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros
Am I a prisoner of the moment and captivated by the shiny new toy in the top half of the Yankees lineup? Maybe. The Yankees did have their struggles scoring runs last season, but they also dealt with long stretches without Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Now, they’re both healthy knocks on wood and they added Juan Soto. So the first four of the Yankees order should now look like this:
Gleyber Torres
Juan Soto
Aaron Judge
Giancarlo Stanton
Yikes. That looks like a lot of potential first-inning runs this season should all those guys stay healthy. And if we look at the matchup today, Framber Valdez tends to give it up more to righties than he does lefties. His slugging percentage allowed ticks up to .348 against righties as opposed to the .306 against lefties.
On the other side, Nestor Cortes gets the ball as the Opening Day starter for the Yankees, which… can’t feel good if you’re a New York fan, especially against this Astros offense that was third in first-inning runs per game in 2023. The top three in this Astros lineup is a gauntlet with Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. All three guys can crush the baseball — and lefties.
This doesn’t have the feel of a NRFI bet today, especially with the offense we have lined up today, and a semi-gas can on the mound for the Yankees. After all, this game boasts a total of 8.5 runs that feels like it might even need to be a tad higher. We’re rooting for fun in this one today.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Yankees-Astros YRFI -112 BetRivers
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds
When I was looking for good bets today, I know a lot of people are going to be looking at Giants-Padres and Guardians-A’s. But what fun is that? Let’s look for some better value for these YRFI/NRFI bets today. And with that in mind, I think I found just that in this Nationals-Reds game.
We have a game with a couple of schmucks on the mound today in Josiah Gray and Frankie Montas.
Montas threw 1.1 more innings in the majors than you and I combined last season. So, it wasn’t exactly a great showing for the fella. The last time he managed a significant workload was in 2022 in which he logged a 1.25 WHIP and gave up 18 dongs in 144 innings.
He draws the Nationals today, who were decent at scoring runs early last season thanks largely to CJ Abrams. His speed puts pressure on defenses, forcing them into uncomfortable situations, and can turn minor mistakes into runs. He stole 47 bases last season, so any walk, error or single can turn into a stolen base and put him into scoring position immediately.
Gray isn’t exactly the epitome of stability and success, either. He’s vulnerable in his own right and can implode at any moment. We know this Reds offense has plenty of pop to light the fuse and send Gray exploding into a million pieces. Gray gave up 38 homers in 2022 but cut it down to 22 last season. However, the underlying numbers suggest he may have been on the good side of variance a season ago.
This game has a healthy total of nine, and we know the Great American Ball Park always has a propensity to create some offensive opportunities, especially with subpar pitchers on the mound. Forget the NRFI bet in this one today, friends. We’re taking the value with the YRFI here.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Nationals-Reds YRFI -105 DraftKings
