The Pittsburgh Pirates finally did it: they called up rookie flamethrower RHP Paul Skenes. He’ll make his first start versus the Chicago Cubs this afternoon at PNC Park. So how should you bet on rookie Paul Skenes in his debut? Let’s dive into our Cubs-Pirates player prop bet for Paul Skenes. If you’re hungry for more, check out our MLB betting tools or our other MLB articles! Also, check out our guides about how to bet on MLB player props and home run betting strategy.
Paul Skenes Player Prop: Cubs-Pirates Bet for His Debut
Paul Skenes Player Prop: Cubs-Pirates Bet for His Debut
Rookie RHP Paul Skenes has been impressive on his way to the show. Last year, he helped LSU win the College World Series with a pivotal start against Wake Forest to get them to the three-game championship series.
In 2023, Skenes made several short appearances, racking up 10 strikeouts over 28 batters faced (35.7% strikeout rate) to go with a 5.40 ERA and 1.050 WHIP. All of his appearances came between Rookie and AA.
This year has been a different story: He’s made seven starts at AAA, racked up 105 batters faced and 45 strikeouts, good for a 42.8% strikeout rate. He’s paired that with a 0.99 ERA and 0.915 WHIP.
But as we learned with Jackson Holliday, the gap between AAA and the majors is a huge one. Still, unlike Holliday, Skenes is throwing 100 mph fastballs with regularity. He isn’t entering the show as a nine-hole batter. He’s entering it as an ace.
The sportsbooks are pricing Skenes’ MLB player props accordingly. The strikeout prop is set to 6.5! Bettors eager to bet the over could get it for +126 at Caesars. Meanwhile, the under is priced at -145 on DraftKings at best and -198 on Pinnacle.
One thing we’ve learned from the Pirates is that they’re being conservative with their pitching prospects. We saw them pull RHP Jared Jones early in his first start, allowing him to throw just 59 pitches. Skenes made it into the fifth inning once in AAA. He also gave up multiple earned runs just once.
The good news with Skenes likely being on a short pitch count is that we can play the under for his earned runs and get credit for both a short appearance and a good one. His earned run prop is trading at 1.5 with the under priced at +110 on DraftKings. With the Cubs ranked a tepid 12th in xwOBA, I’m putting my faith in the rookie flamethrower.
Cubs-Pirates Player Prop: Paul Skenes Under 1.5 Total Earned Runs +110 at DraftKings
For the best price currently available, check out our Paul Skenes total earned runs live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2024 MLB predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this MLB season — make sure to check out the rest of our MLB articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
