Mitch Keller is coming into his own this season for the Pittsburgh Pirates after several underwhelming seasons. Keller had been one of the organizations top prospects, but had never taken off until midway through last year’s campaign. He now gets a light hitting Miami Marlins club on the road in what amounts to a pitcher’s park. But is this Mitch Keller MLB prop bet still too high? Let’s take a look at the Pirates-Marlins odds to help make a prediction and pick the best MLB bet on PointsBet using the OddsShopper betting model.
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Best MLB Pirates Marlins Betting Pick & Prediction: Mitch Keller is Not This Good
Pirates-Marlins Odds
Odds via PointsBet Sportsbook
Pirates: +140 | Marlins: -170
Over 7: -120 | Under 7: +100
The Pittsburgh Pirates have come down to earth after jumping out of the gates to one of the hottest starts in Major League Baseball. Pittsburgh is now 34-39 and trying to avoid falling to the bottom of the National League Central Division. Mitch Keller has been one of the bright spots for this team, grabbing the mantle as their staff ace. He has a 3.62 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 4.2 K/BB rate so fat this year. Keller’s solid numbers are in improvement off of what was an already solid 2022. The young star is still only 27-years old despite this being his fifth full season in the big leagues.
Like Pittsburgh, the Marlins got off to a hot start, as well. However unlike the Pirates, Miami is maintaining their early success. The Marlins are 42-33, trailing just the Atlanta Braves in the NL East, and they are very much alive for a NL Wildcard spot. Fans and MLB bettors did not have high hopes for Miami coming into this year, but they have proved the speculators wrong.
The Marlins success might be enough to curtail Keller a bit, who has a strikeout prop of 6.5. That number is a bit high according to OddsShopper’s market-based betting model. It uses the sharpest sportsbooks to identify the true odds for any MLB bet, then finds what books are off the number. There’s a 5% positive expected value on this bet at PointsBet, who currently has Keller Under 6.5 at -155. The true odds should be -175, making this worth staking about 2.5% of your bankroll if you’re using the Kelly Criterion. The market may move as the game approaches, but you can grab this now to lock in the edge.
Best Pirates-Marlins MLB Pick: Mitch Keller Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-155) at PointsBet
