It’s get away day on Wednesday for the Texas Rangers and Cincinnati Reds. The Reds are up 2-0 in the best of three series, beating the Rangers 7-6 in both games. Overnight MLB odds are being released and the OddsShopper betting model is already finding a bit of value on the series finale. Despite 13 runs being put up on Monday and Tuesday, there’s a slight edge on the under in Rangers-Reds if bettors can get to this one before it moves.
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Rangers vs. Reds Odds & Prediction
Rangers Moneyline: -113 (BetRivers)
Reds Moneyline: +100 (BetRivers)
Total: 9 (BetMGM)
Overnight lines are a great way to find value before MLB betting markets coalesce on the efficient price. That’s often arrived at by tailing market making books, but the OddsShopper model uses those sharp sportsbooks to find the right price and figure out where others are off the mark.
In this case, there’s nothing popping out as a must bet in the Rangers-Reds series finale, but there’s still a chance to eek out some value. The MLB betting model has the game’s Under 9.0 runs hitting 53% of the time. You can grab that line at -110 at BetRivers. The bet has an expected ROI of just under 1%, so you won’t want to lay too much. But if you’re trading on volume you’ll make money in the long run. You can do it sustainably with a Kelly bet size of .44% of your bankroll.
The price on this under might be slightly off given how high scoring the first two games of the series were. Nevertheless, the Rangers’ Jon Gray has had a strong start to the 2023 MLB season. That’s coming off the back of a solid 2022, as well. Gray has rejuvenated his career since leaving the Colorado Rockies and avoiding pitching half his games in Coors Field. The Reds will put Graham Ashcroft on the hill. He’s young, but had a strong start to his career, joining Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo to give the Reds a trio of young starting pitchers at the top of their rotation.
Keep checking OddsShopper tonight and in the lead up to the game as the market moves. You’ll find expert analysis, the top prop bets and more insights from the sharpest betting tool in the industry. There have already been more profitable bets discovered since overnight lines were released.
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