With MLB Opening Day drawing near — and with Massachusetts legalizing sports betting — now is a great time to take a look at Boston Red Sox futures odds as they enter a potentially tumultuous (or surprisingly promising) 2023 campaign. Let’s take a look at some of the best Boston bets and value spots for MLB betting in Massachusetts, including Rafael Devers and Masataka Yoshida.
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2023 Red Sox Futures Odds: Rafael Devers the Only Value Play?
Boston Red Sox Futures & Odds
There is not a ton trending in the Red Sox favor this season with regard to futures. They are 11th on DraftKings at +2500 to win the American League, fourth at +1700 to take the AL East, and their win total is just over/under 78.5 (though the over is taking some money). In such a loaded division — one that includes the Yankees, Blue Jays and Rays, who have the second-, third- and fifth-best odds to win the American League — Boston is going to have a tough time finishing higher than fourth, barring catastrophic injuries to one of those three teams.
The wins over/under is a bit more compelling. The Red Sox won 78 games in 2022 and have some solid developing young players in their lineup like Triston Casas and NPB signee Masataka Yoshida. Boston also has one of the best left-handed bets in the league in Rafael Devers. That said, J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts, probably Boston’s second- and third-best hitters, are now in the NL West. Trevor Story will miss most of the season as well. As such, the Red Sox lineup looks pretty unimposing unless the new additions make huge impressions this year.
On top of that, the Red Sox are fielding a killer rotation, but only if this were 2017. Corey Kluber, Chris Sale and James Paxton have dealt with myriad injury troubles the last handful of seasons and are all in their mid-30s, and at least two of those guys are going to be relied upon heavily. Sale is the nominal ace, but it is unclear what (if anything) he can offer as a No. 1 anymore.
The only team in the AL East that is projecting for fewer wins is the Orioles, and yet they have some really solid-looking youngsters in their starting lineup. Coming off an 83-win 2022, Baltimore looks quite a bit more appealing than Boston despite an over/under of just 76.5.
All that is to say that there is only one worthwhile Red Sox future worth taking: Under 78.5 wins at +100. Boston to miss the playoffs is -370, so while that is likely, there is not much value.
Best Red Sox Futures Bet: Red Sox Under 78.5 Wins
Boston Red Sox Player Futures
To begin, no Red Sox player is in contention for a major award — not even Devers for MVP. His best MVP finish was 11th in 2021, and it would take a historically great offensive season for him to pass a player on a contending team like Aaron Judge or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. That said, Devers is +1300 to lead MLB in RBIs, tied for fourth best, and since there will not be any thumpers like Bogaerts or Martinez around him to vulture RBIs, this is actually a decent value bet. Of course, the lack of pop in the lineup also means Devers will see his fair share of walks. But among player futures, this one has the likeliest chance of hitting — except for maybe one award spot.
For those curious about Sale, he is +8000 to win AL Cy Young. Granted, Sale has six career top-5 finishes, but his last one was in 2018 and he has not pitched a full season since 2019. Him contending here is very far-fetched.
The only other future worth a swing is Yoshida for AL Rookie of the Year. He currently has the second-best odds, behind Baltimore’s Gunnar Henderson, and there is plenty of history of older players coming over from international leagues and taking home top rookie honors. Yoshida is +600 to win, and he was a two-time patting champion in the NPB prior to signing with the Red Sox. All told, his numbers in Japan are strong, regularly pushing over .950 with his OPS in his last five seasons there.
He will get a chance to hit with some runners on base as well since he will likely be behind Devers in the lineup, whereas Henderson has no proven superstars around him in the Orioles order. As such, there is actually good value with Yoshida for AL Rookie of the Year.
Best Red Sox Futures Bets: Rafael Devers MLB RBI Leader (+1300); Masataka Yoshida American League Rookie of the Year (+600)
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